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Aug 01 - 06:55 PM

TD: July's US NFP Report Could Outperform Market Consensus; Anticipates 260k Payroll Gains

By eFXdata  —  Aug 01 - 03:00 PM

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) has shared its forecasts ahead of the eagerly awaited US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report for July, with predictions surpassing the general market consensus.

Key Points:

  1. Accelerated Payrolls: TD envisions a noticeable uptick in payrolls for July, maintaining the momentum and sustaining an above-trend growth for yet another month. This forecast, if realized, would anchor the three-month average payroll gain firmly above 250k, barring any significant alterations to prior data.

  2. Unemployment Metrics: TD anticipates a minor contraction in the unemployment (UE) rate, projecting it to descend by a tenth to 3.5%. This anticipated drop signifies a back-to-back monthly decrease, following a spike to 3.7% in May.

  3. Wage Growth Projection: Alongside its other predictions, the bank expects monthly wage growth to register at 0.3%, translating to an annualized rate of 4.2%.

  4. Against the Grain: Notably, TD's payroll growth forecast of 260k for July notably exceeds the broader market consensus, which stands at 200k. Similarly, their prediction for the unemployment rate is more optimistic, with a forecast of 3.5% compared to the market's 3.6%.


Toronto-Dominion Bank's outlook for July's US NFP report is distinctly more optimistic than the prevailing market sentiment. The bank foresees an above-trend continuation in payroll gains, a further reduction in the unemployment rate, and steady wage growth. These projections, if accurate, could provide vital insights into the evolving dynamics of the US labor market and the broader economic landscape.

TD Bank Research/Market Commentary


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