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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Burton Frierson  —  Dec 04 - 04:01 PM

 

  • EUR net spec long rises to 139,894 from 138,250 contracts the previous week

  • GBP net spec short 7,899 vs 17,130 the previous week

  • JPY net spec long 47,503 from 40,242 contracts

  • JPY long highest since Oct 2016

  • AUD net spec short increases to 10,800 from 5,277

     

 

EUR net spec long: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Dec 04 - 02:45 PM

  • The Brexit talks saga snagged sterling at week's end nL1N2IK1YG

  • Negotiators say deal not possible, divergences persist nS8N2HE02I

  • It's not clear whether a call on Saturday could revive talks

  • Cable was already well off its 1.3540 peak past 2019's 1.3516 high

  • Ramped up vols and bearish risk-reversals this week show no-deal hedging

  • Cable down by the down TL from 2007 at 1.3411 it cleared this week

  • There's some overbought RSI divergence risk as well

  • If Brexit goes bust, 55- and 100-DMAs & cloud top by 1.3080 are in play

For more click on FXBUZ


Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Dec 04 - 01:55 PM
  • Pair trades to 32-mo high in Europe am, then dip near 1.2165 into NY open

  • Mixed reaction after US jobs report nL1N2IK197, 1.2165 initially neared

  • Pair then drops near 1.2130 as the US$ firms but bulls hold the line

  • EUR/JPY bounces off its 126.27 NY EBS low, EUR/USD nears 1.2175

  • Price action fades quickly thereafter & pair sits near 1.2150 late

  • US jobs data buoys stimulus hopes; EUR/USD rally likely extends nL1N2IK1MQ

  • For more click on FXBUZ










eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Dec 04 - 12:30 PM

ANZ Research discusses AUD/USD outlook for 2021 and targets the pair at mid-year and 0.80 by next year-end.

"The Australian dollar has emerged from a turbulent year as a winner, topping the G10 and Asia performance rankings since March and cementing its position as the premier global FX risk proxy. 2021 is likely to mirror 2020, in that global dynamics will be more important than the domestic story...Accommodative policy settings will keep interest rates at record lows, pushing investors up the risk curve and supporting equities. This is an environment in which the AUD tends to perform well," ANZ notes.

"While the recovery will be incremental and a portion of this is already priced in, we think the AUD’s undervaluation provides ample room for more improvement into 2021. As such, we’ve set our year-end target at USD0.80," ANZ adds. 

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Dec 04 - 12:10 PM
  • US$ trades broadly lower & oil prices remain near recent highs

  • Combination is a recipe for USD/CAD to continue its bear trend

  • USD/CAD sets a 26-month low, nears the Oct. 2018 monthly low

  • Monthly & daily RSIs imply bearish momentum is still intact

  • USD/CAD rally sellers likely lower offers to the 1.2920/60 zone

  • Support from monthly cloud base might support & drive a bounce

  • Daily RSI is deeply oversold, implies risk of corrective bounce

  • For more click on FXBUZ

usd/cad Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Dec 04 - 11:30 AM

Danske Research recommends going short EUR/USD via 6M seagull at zero cost.

"We generally see short-term indicators as being stretched long in e.g. positioning and the ‘recovery trade’-narrative is quite consensus by now. Thus, the surprise potential appears to be for the downside in EUR/USD, just like in 2018," Danske notes. 

"We suggest to go short EUR/USD via a seagull - betting in the direction of the trend from a tactically stretched position and taking advantage of the decline in volatility and cheap wings. We choose to go short spot via a 6M seagull (long tenor, known worst case) as we do recognise it could take a few months before markets decide for a new story and Q1 could propel us a bit higher still. Key risks to this trade include a renewed, strong reflationary momentum and/or that European macro is stronger than we anticipate," Danske adds. 

m49.PNG

Source:
Danske Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Dec 04 - 09:35 AM

GBP spot and option traders face a Brexit dilemma, leaving many side-lined and consequently increasing actual volatility risk nL1N2IK0MK.

GBP already near the top of bullish expectations (1.35-1.36), so cash longs risk a no deal scenario, and even a sell the fact reaction to a positive outcome.

Shorter dated expiry implied volatility trades long-term highs, making FX options very expensive, especially to the downside, and risks big losses should implied volatility collapse if a deal is finally agreed.

EUR/USD raced higher this week, fuelling demand for implied volatility and its topside risk premium.
Setbacks in both spot and option premium have proved minimal with sights on a wealth of option barriers and triggers at 1.2200, which should be well defended nL1N2IK0HA.

USD/JPY implied volatility and the JPY call (spot downside) risk premium have found support, but still lack demand - suggesting recent ranges are expected to hold for now (albeit with a downside lean).

Low AUD/USD implied volatility and AUD put premiums consistent with a slow spot grind higher nL1N2IK0Q8.
For more click on FXBUZ












gbp 1-3-12-month 25 delta risk reversals Click here

GBP/USD 1-week and 1-month option implied volatility Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Dec 04 - 09:10 AM

Credit Suisse maintains a bearish bias on EUR/GBP in the near-term.

"EURGBP maintains a small base above the downtrend from September and mid -November high around .9001/07 but even though further near -term strength is still seen likely, our bias remans to view this phase as temporary ahead of an eventual fall back to retest .8866/61. Below .9890 should see the base neutralized for a fall back towards .8929, with this seen as the barrier to a retest of .8666/61, an eventual break of which can confirm a major top," CS notes. 

"Support at .8990 needs to hold to keep the immediate risk higher with resistance above .9085/91 seen at .9127 next – the 61.8% retracement of the September/November fall – then the “measured base objective” at .9150. With the October high just above at .9165, we would look for a fresh and important cap here," CS adds. 

Source:
Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Dec 04 - 08:56 AM

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's US and Canadian jobs reports for the month of December. 

'The rise in virus cases started to catch up with the US labor market in November, as hiring slowed to a fraction of the pace seen in  previous months. The 245K jobs created were well below the consensus forecast for a 460K gain and included slower hiring across most industries, notably leisure & hospitality, and a drop in retail trade as hiring failed to keep up with normal seasonal patterns.

With the virus still spreading rapidly, December could be a more challenging month for the labor market, as some states are contemplating increasing restrictions on activity. This coincides with the expiration of a couple of federal unemployment benefit programs at the end of the year, suggesting that further fiscal support is becoming increasingly urgent," CIBC notes. 

"Canada's labour market was able to outrun Covid again in November. The economy added 62K jobs, taking the unemployment rate all the way down to 8.4%. The increase of 0.3% in employment was the slowest monthly advance since the recovery began, with additional restrictions in recent months weighing on hiring in some industries.

The survey was conducted towards the middle of November, which was before the latest rounds of more-severe shutdowns in parts of the country. As a result, it's likely that Covid will catch up with the Canadian economy in the December data, with a decline expected in both employment and overall economic activity," CIBC adds.

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Dec 04 - 07:40 AM
  • Equities ESv1, copper HGv1, iron-ore DCIOc2 rallies extend

  • AU-US yield spreads tighten & USD/CNH drops towards 6.5100

  • Despite those bullish influences AUD/USD trades lower on the day

  • Pair hovers just above the session low as investors await US jobs report

  • Pull back holds above old resistance turned support which sits 0.7405/15

  • If support holds & US$ weakens after data 0.7450/55 break is likely

  • 76.4% Fibo of 0.8136-0.5510 which sits 0.7516 is then targeted

  • Should 0.7405/15 break profit taking will put 0.7325/45 zone in play

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Dec 04 - 06:05 AM

EUR/USD is widely expected to rise and traders have prepared for the eventuality, the chance the pair holds expected gains is remote.

The 1.25-1.26 area is predicted by a great many speculators whose aim is to sell in order to profit.

That alone makes 1.25-1.26 a high hurdle but it also capped the last major EUR/USD rise in 2018 so there will be a lot of profit taking at a point of huge resistance.

The minimum objective for a correction of EUR/USD's drop in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis was 1.2517, met when an excessively bearish situation that arose during the euro zone crisis was unwound, yet it still capped that rally.

The chance that a rally fuelled by excessive bullish speculation exceeds 2018 highs is small.

Long positions when EUR/USD peaked in 2018 were equivalent of 23 billion dollars.
Longs were equivalent to USD 20.5 billion dollars before EUR/USD's recent 2.8% gain.
Longs hit a record 31.3 billion dollars in August and will probably eclipse that record if EUR/USD reaches 1.25.

For more click on FXBUZ


EURUSD longs Click here

EUR/USD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Dec 04 - 05:20 AM
  • Forward looking FX options are often a good reflection of expectations

  • Crisis low implied volatility suggests lack of actual volatility

  • Premium for AUD puts over calls (downside risk) toward long term lows

  • Outright flows suggest focus on 0.7500-50 - not much above yet

  • AUD/USD option barriers expected every 50 pips from 0.7450

  • 0.7449 Thurs high,0.7443-14 range so far Friday

  • Bulls focused on 76.4% Fibo retrace of 0.8136-0.5510 drop at 0.7516

  • Initial resistance 2-double tops from July 2018 at 0.7464 and 0.7484



AUD=D3 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Dec 04 - 02:50 AM
  • EUR/USD registered the second biggest daily gain of 2020 on Tuesday

  • Wednesday it broke above the 1.2103 long-term Fibonacci level

  • 1.2103 Fibo is a 76.4% retrace of the 1.2556 to 1.0636 (2018 to 2020) drop

  • A weekly close above the 1.2103 Fibo would increase odds for bigger gains

  • Fourteen-week momentum remains positive, four weeks in a row = bullish

  • We are looking to get long on dips to 1.2010

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL1N2IJ0DX

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Dec 04 - 02:15 AM
  • USD/JPY left a upper shadow on Wednesday's candlestick line

  • It failed to register a daily close above the kijun line at 104.43

  • Saw a subsequent big drop on Thursday, weakening the outlook

  • Scope grows for a deeper drop towards Nov's 103.18 low in coming sessions

  • A break under Nov 18 103.66 low needed to weaken market structure further

  • Trader TGM2336. EUR/JPY range has been 126.06-126.34 EBS range

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Dec 04 - 02:15 AM
  • Thursday rally and trend extension removes key 1.3481 resistance: Sep 1 high

  • Our 1.3475 offer met and we now look for corrective action

  • 14-day positive momentum has increased but RSI is over bought

  • Weeklies in focus and a close above 1.3516 could negate adjustment risk

  • A late Jan weekly cloud twist could start to influence: 1.2464-1.2510

  • Given counter trend short we have a tight stop above 1.3516 Dec 2019 high
















GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  Dec 04 - 01:10 AM
  • AUD/USD teeters lower to 0.7425 from last close 0.7442

  • Consolidation may not mean end of bullish technical bias

  • Fri close above 0.7387 keeps Bollinger uptrend channel in play

  • US nonfarm payrolls for Nov expected 469,000 from 638,000

  • Stocks rise in Asia, regional currencies strongest in 2.5 years

  • Upbeat mood persists, despite US-China trade risks nL1N2IK06H

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Dec 03 - 10:15 PM
  • -0.15% towards the base of a 0.7425-0.7443 range with modest interest

  • Softer on profit taking ahead of potential volatility around U.S. payrolls

  • Retail sales +1.4% against +1.6% expected - as Victoria eased restrictions

  • Uncertainty around coronavirus and lockdowns has reduced the impact of data

  • Charts; daily, weekly and monthly 5, 10 & 21 MAs all trend higher

  • Unusual bullish setup, driven by safe haven USD weakening across the board

  • Next significant resistance is 0.7516, 76.4% of the 2018-2020 fall

  • Close below 0.7375 10 DMA, a base this week would undermine topside bias

    For more click on FXBUZ

aud 2 dec 4 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Dec 03 - 09:55 PM
  • +0.1%, in a quiet 1.3448-1.3466 range - EUR/GBP -0.1% with some big flows

  • Asia cautious ahead of U.S. payrolls, as USD leads cable at present

  • Poll suggests GBP to have a choppy December, then rise in 2021 nL8N2IJ2LZ

  • Mixed signals from Brexit talks & little progress on key issues nL8N2IJ1PD

  • Deal or no deal, brinkmanship leaves trust between EU & UK at a low ebb

  • Charts; momentum studies, daily and weekly 5, 10 & 21 MAs point north

  • Bias remains higher while closes above 1.3295 rising 21 DMA

  • Next major resistance is last December's 1.3516 2019 high


For more click on FXBUZ


gbp 2 dec 4 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Dec 03 - 07:40 PM
  • -0.1% in a slow start, with Asia cautious ahead of U.S. payrolls

  • Retail sales came in at +1.4% against +1.6% expected - little initial impact

  • Impact of the coronavirus and lockdowns has reduced the impact of data

  • Charts; daily, weekly and monthly 5, 10 & 21 MAs track north

  • Unusual and very bullish setup - safe haven USD weakens across the board

  • Next significant resistance is 0.7516, 76.4% of the 2018-2020 fall

  • Close below 0.7376 10 DMA, a base this week would undermine topside bias

  • London 0.7410 low and NY 0.7449 high is initial support-resistance

    For more click on FXBUZ

aud dec 4 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Dec 03 - 06:40 PM
  • Flat after closing up 0.55%, leading the USD lower with a 1.3500 2020 high

  • Brexit talks continue - usual mixed signals & little progress nL8N2IJ1PD

  • UK to press ahead with Brexit treaty-breaking laws next week nL8N2IJ30Y

  • Brinkmanship will leave little 2021 trust between EU & UK, deal or no deal

  • Charts; momentum studies, daily and weekly 5, 10 & 21 MAs point north

  • Bias remains higher while closes above 1.3280 rising 21 DMA close

  • Next major resistance is last December's 1.3516 2019 high

  • NY afternoon 1.3432-1.3500 range initial support-resistance

For more click on FXBUZ


gbp dec 4 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Dec 03 - 06:00 PM
  • Flat after closing up 0.2%, as the strong USD downtrend extended

  • Stocks, commodities & 2021 outlook remain resilient, hitting safe haven USD

  • EU-UK trade deal hangs in the balance, with mixed signals nL8N2IJ1PD

  • Suggests that any deal will likely be 'bare bones' not comprehensive

  • Charts; momentum studies, daily & weekly 5, 10 & 21 MAs track north

  • Strong bullish setup targets the 1.2556 2018 high longer term

  • Close below 1.1992 10 DMA needed to undermine the topside bias

  • London 1.2101 low and NY 1.2174 high are initial support-resistance

For more click on FXBUZ


eur dec 4 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Dec 03 - 03:00 PM

ANZ Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and targets the pair at 1.25 by mid-2021 and at 1.28 by end-2021.

"We revised up our EUR/USD forecasts. COVID-19 vaccines will support a quicker return to pre-crisis GDP levels, despite the downside risks to growth over the winter. Our base-case expectation is that positive cyclicality from Q2 will favour the euro. Global GDP growth and trade volumes are recovering; and fiscal and monetary stimulus, supported improving health expectations, could drive above-trend growth into 2022,"ANZ notes. 

"A Biden presidency is expected to embrace a multilateral approach to trade, favouring dialogue over tariffs. The likelihood of a protracted USEU trade dispute has fallen. If Janet Yellen is confirmed as US Treasury Secretary, fiscal and monetary policy are likely to work together in driving higher growth and inflation to optimise economic outcomes. DXY and US inflation expectations are inversely correlated. We now expect EUR/USD to rise towards 1.28 by end 2021," ANZ adds. 

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Dec 03 - 03:35 PM
  • USD/JPY's bearish bias was burnished by drop below the 104.22 tenkan

  • It had caught prices yesterday and through the London morning today

  • A break toward Nov's 103.18 EBS low was averted by last week's 103.68 low

  • A failed rebound into the tenkan at 104.22 would weaken outlook further

  • A close below 103.68 low would be a bearish end to a 4-week consolidation

  • Only the Mar. 12 103.10 pullback low ahead of March's 101.18 spike low

    For more click on FXBUZ

Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Dec 03 - 02:35 PM
  • EUR/USD lifts further above 76.4% Fib 1.2556-1.0636, hits 32-mo high

  • Monthly RSI implies longer-term bullish momentum remains

  • Daily doji forms & daily RSI is overbought, imply risk of correction lower

  • If correction takes hold dip buyers likely get an opportunity to get long

  • Buyers likely lurk at old resistance turned to support near 1.2000/15

  • A test of 1.2500/50 zone cannot be ruled out nL1N2IJ1AS

  • For more click on FXBUZ







eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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