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Oct 12 - 10:55 AM

BofA: Regional FX Flows: Divergent Themes Amidst Consistent EUR & CHF Selling

By eFXdata  —  Oct 12 - 09:42 AM

Summary: BofA has made several observations concerning regional foreign exchange (FX) flows, with the consistent selling of EUR and CHF as the most prominent trend. However, beyond this agreement, different regions exhibit varying FX behavior.

Key Takeaways:

  1. A Shift from Last Year: The prominent trend in the previous year was the strong USDEM FX buying across all regions. This year lacks an overarching theme like that.

  2. Commonalities: Investors from all regions have offloaded their EUR and CHF holdings. Notably, these currencies started the year in long positions in most cases.

  3. Regional Variations:

    • AMRS Investors: Alongside EUR and CHF selling, AMRS investors have disposed of their USD and NZD. Their acquisitions include Asia FX, specifically JPY & Asia EM, EMEA EM FX, and SEK.

    • EMEA Investors: These investors have demonstrated the most varied selling pattern, offloading EMEA EM, AUD, NZD, EUR, and CHF. Their buying preference leans towards GBP consistently over three quarters, with a mix of Scandies, CAD, and JPY. Notably, the maximum pressure on EUR this year has stemmed from EMEA investors.

    • Asia Investors: Beyond the consistent selling of EUR and CHF, they have divested from JPY, CAD, EMEA EM, and SEK. Their acquisitions tilt towards the USD, LatAm FX, and NOK.

Concluding Thoughts: While EUR and CHF selling has been a unanimous strategy across different regions, the overall FX investment patterns this year seem fragmented. Regional factors and specific economic drivers are likely influencing these diverse behaviors, offering an intricate view of the current global FX landscape.

BofA Global Research


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