• UK wage beat casts doubt over BoE pause in May that 28/61 economists expect

• Markets price an 81% chance of a 25bps May hike and another hike by Summer

• UK CPI topside surprise would likely catapult GBP/USD back to 1.25

• However, gains may struggle above 1.25 given current tightening priced in

• Bigger concern for GBP would be a CPI miss, raising the risk of sub 1.23

• Resistance at Apr 4/14 highs (1.2525-45). Support at Apr 10 low (1.2346)

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