BNP Paribas shares its forecasts for the upcoming US jobs report for December, anticipating resilience in the labor market that could impact Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.
Job Growth Estimate:
- BNP Paribas estimates a job addition of 165,000 in December, a decrease from the 199,000 jobs added in the previous month.
- This figure suggests a return to a gradual downward trend in job creation, following distortions caused by strike activities in October and November.
- Layoff activity appeared to decrease towards the end of the year, likely due to the uptick in economic growth observed in the second half of 2023.
Unemployment Rate Projection:
- The unemployment rate is projected to increase to 3.9%, up from the previous 3.7%.
- This increase may be somewhat exaggerated due to the normalization of the labor market following the strike impacts in the earlier months.
BNP Paribas' forecast for the December US jobs report points to a resilient labor market, with a slight decrease in job additions and a minor uptick in the unemployment rate. These trends suggest that the labor market remains strong, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rate cuts. The bank's analysis underscores the importance of understanding labor market dynamics in anticipating central bank policies.