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Thomson Reuters
Nov 27 - 05:00 PM
AUD/USD: 0.74 If Trump-Xi Detente - NAB
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 27 - 12:35 PM

NAB discusses AUD/USD outlook ahead of the G20 meeting and argues that If Trump agrees to a temporary cease fire with Xi on December 1st, AUD/USD rally can extend to ~0.74.

"This is not a high conviction call, more like 60:40. And even if we’re right, we suspect it will do no more than grant a temporary stay of execution to further trade action against China, bearing in mind the political, military, technological as well as economic facets to Sino-US relationship issues. 

This would though suffice to generate a temporary relief rally in both EM and DM risk markets, relieve upward pressure on USD/CNY and see recent AUD/USD gains extend, potentially to the 0.74 area depending on the starting point (a  level previously noted as a pivot-point prior to the August break-down)," NAB argues.

NAB Research/Market Commentary


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