AUD: Click here 
eur apr 24 Click here 
EUR/USD: EUR to stay on the defensive, any weakness could be limited.
The relatively sharp and rapid decline in EUR yesterday (23 Apr) that moved below the bottom of our expected 1.1200/1.1300 sidewaytrading range was not expected (overnight low of 1.1190). Downward pressure has ticked up and the near-term risk is tilted to the downside. For the next one week, EUR could move below the year-to-date low of 1.1174. That said, lackluster momentum suggests any weakness could be limited to the next support at 1.1140. To put it another way, EUR is expected to be stay on the defensive from here. Only a move above 1.1285 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased.
GBP/USD: GBP is expected to move to 1.2900, followed by 1.2870.
We held the view that GBP is expected to “trade sideways” since early last week but noted, “the pick-up in downward pressure suggests GBP could probe the 1.2950 level” (1.2950 was the bottom of our expected sideway trading range). We highlighted yesterday that “looking forward, a break 1.2950 would indicate that a move towards 1.2900 (and possibly below this level) has started”. From that perspective, the decline to a low of 1.2928 yesterday (23 Apr) was not exactly unexpected. Downward pressure has improved further and from here, GBP is expected to move to 1.2900 followed by 1.2870. Further down, the next support is at 1.2830. On the upside, only a move above the 1.3020 ‘key resistance’ would indicate that a short-term bottom is in place.
AUD/USD: AUD could move to last month’s low near 0.7005.
We highlighted on Monday (22 Apr, spot at 0.7145) that “last week’s 0.7206 peak is a short-term top”. We added, “AUD is expected to stay under mild downward pressure” and held the view that a sustained drop below 0.7100 is unlikely. However, AUD dropped sharply to a low of 0.7082 yesterday and the just released Australia inflation data sent it reeling further (low of 0.7045 at the time of writing). The price action has resulted in a rapid increase in downward pressure and from here; a move to last month’s low near 0.7005 seems likely. 0.7000/05 is a rather critical support and a break of this level would indicate AUD could move even lower in the weeks ahead (next nearest support is at 0.6950). For the next few days, we expect AUD to stay below the 0.7140 ‘key resistance’.
NZD/USD: Prospect for further weakness to 0.6591 has increased.
The negative phase in NZD that started late last month remains intact as it dropped sharply to 0.6630 yesterday (23 Apr). The price action was not unexpected, as we have held the same view since last Thursday (18 Apr) wherein NZD is “expected to move below 0.6660”. We indicated previously “further weakness to 0.6591 is not ruled out but at this stage, the odds are not that high”. However, after yesterday’s price action, the odds for a move to the year-to-date low of 0.6591 have clearly increased. On the upside, the ‘key resistance’ has moved lower to 0.6705 from the prior level of 0.6750.
USD/JPY: USD is expected to trade with a positive bias but 112.60 could be out of reach.
USD closed largely unchanged in NY yesterday at 111.86 (-0.06%). The quiet price action offers no fresh clues and we continue to hold the same last Monday (15 Apr) wherein USD is “expected to trade with a positive bias”. However, as highlighted previously, the 112.60 resistance is likely out of reach. On the downside, only a break of 111.40 (no change in ‘key support’ level) would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.
aud/usd Click here 
aud/usd Click here 
eur/usd Click here 
aud/usd Click here 
Danske Research discusses EUR/GBP outlook in light of revising its forecasts to account for a longer period of range trading around 0.85-0.87 in 3-12 months.
"With a medium to long Brexit extension and no reason to believe May’s deal will pass or that cross-party talks will prove successful any time soon, we think it is difficult to see much further GBP-strengthening near term. Hence, we have raised our GBP forecasts throughout the forecast horizon and look for EUR/GBP to remain range-bound at 0.85-0.87 in 1-3M. It is more difficult to predict what will happen when we get closer to the new Brexit deadline in October, but as we think a further extension is likely, we expect the cross to remain at 0.85-0.87 also in 3-12M," Danske argues.
"In case of a no deal Brexit by the end of October, we still expect EUR/GBP to move towards parity. If May’s deal passes, we would expect EUR/GBP to move down to 0.83. We target the cross at 0.86 in 1M and in 3M (prev. 0.83), 0.86 in 6M (0.82), and 0.86 in 12M (0.83).," Danske adds.
chart: Click here 
AUD/USD longs are nervous as the 21- and 55-DMAs break and a fall below the daily cloud base is threatened after the greenback rallied sharply on Philly Fed services data nAQN00HBE6.
The upbeat results to the Philly Fed new orders and employment components suggest the U.S. economy remains an island of robust growth in an otherwise lackluster global economy, making the greenback and equities attractive to investors.
AUD/USD bulls are hoping for upbeat Australian inflation to save them from further pain, though inflation remains below the RBA's target and is expected to deteriorate from Q4 results. The subdued inflation picture has confounded the RBA as the Australian jobs market is in solid shape and has driven Australian 3-month bank bills to price in an RBA cut in Q4 2019.
Should tonight's CPI come in above forecasts the odds of that cut will be reduced and AUD/USD could rally sharply.
CFTC stats 0#NETUSDFX= show net-short AUD positions have been reduced a bit.
An above-forecast CPI result could see the reduction intensify, possibly reversing AUD/USD's recent slide and setting up a test of key 0.7205/10 resistance.
A break above that zone would target January's 0.7295 high.
chart: Click here 
ANZ Research discusses its expectation for AU CPI tonight and expects a positive surprise in which would trigger a push higher in AUD/USD.
"The build-up to the May RBA meeting will reach a crescendo in the coming weeks as the CPI looms large. With our expectation of a +0.4% we think that the case for a RBA cut remains thin, However, there will be little tolerance for any weakness, and we think that a core print in the realms of a +0.2% q/q could trigger an easing from the RBA," ANZ projects.
"Should the CPI print as we expect, the AUD will likely push higher as easing expectations are unwound. For this strength to be sustained however, we would need to see the recent green shoots in the Australian economy sustaining," ANZ adds.
USD/JPY may finally get clear of congestion by 112 after Friday's U.S. GDP report, but follow-through could disappoint specs already heavily long at fairly high average prices nL1N2240E3.
With the start of the new Japanese fiscal year there's a bullish USD/JPY seasonal bias boosted by Japanese demand for U.S. assets nL1N225052.
In recent years, that demand was aided by U.S. economic growth tending to underperform in Q1 and rebound in Q2, lifting already attractive yields on Treasuries.
Over the last four years, USD/JPY's average price gained 2.6 percent between its mid-April low and June 1 swing high.
With the BOJ seen on hold Thursday night, the focus remains on U.S. data and yield moves after Friday's Q1 GDP and in response to next week's PMIs, jobs report and FOMC meeting.
A strong GDP may get USD/JPY above 112+ offers and toward the downtrend line off 2018 highs, now at 112.83.
The sharp drop in options gamma from Friday through next week and nearly five-year lows in 1-month vols may create enough space to reach smaller expiries near the trendline into next week's event risks.
Decent 112 expiries Monday and Tuesday hint at bigger moves later in the week in Japan holiday-thinned trading nL1N2240NN.
TD Research discusses its expectation for AU CPI tonight and expects a big upside surprise in which would reinforce support in both AUD/USD and AUD/CAD.
"Monthly headline inflation rose modestly in the Mar qtr, +0.5%/q monthly average and +0.4%/q mid-month of the quarter. The Inflation Gauge measure tends to slightly underestimate headline CPI for Q1, so we stay with 'top down' headline CPI at +0.5%/q and 1.8%/y. Consensus is weaker at +0.2%/q,' TD projects.
"An upside surprise to give the AUD the briefest of tailwinds towards $US0.72, a level that hasn't broken since the RBA switched to 'balanced' risks. Expect sellers to emerge ahead of the ANZAC Day holiday the next day," TD adds.
GBPUSD: Click here 
Australian inflation data: Click here 
EUR/CHF Weekly Ichimoku Chart: Click here 
GBP/USD Trader:
GBP/USD Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here 
audd apr 23 Click here 
EUR/USD: EUR has moved into a consolidation phase.
There is not much to add as EUR traded in a quiet manner yesterday and within a narrow range of 1.1234/1.1263 before ending the day just a tad higher at 1.1255 (+0.08%). As highlighted yesterday (22 Apr), EUR has likely “moved into a consolidation phase” and is expected to trade sideways for a couple of weeks, expected to be within a 1.1200/1.1300 range. Looking ahead, only a move above the major 1.1330 resistance level would suggest EUR is ready to challenge the 1.1400 level even though this is unlikely to happen anytime soon.
GBP/USD: GBP is expected to continue to trade sideways.
Even though it was Easter Monday yesterday (22 Apr), the registered daily range of 23 pips range (between 1.2975 and 1.2998) still came as a surprise. Besides Christmas Day (when Tokyo is the only major market that is open), the extremely tight 23 pips range appears to be the smallest one-day range in GBP for at least the past 15 years. For now, we continue to expect GBP to “trade sideways” even though as highlighted in recent updates, the pick-up in downward pressure suggests GBP could probe the 1.2950 level. Looking ahead, a break 1.2950 would indicate that a move towards 1.2900 (and possibly below this level) has started.
AUD/USD: AUD is under mild downward pressure but any weakness is viewed as part of a broad range.
There is not much to add to the update from yesterday (22 Apr). As highlighted, last week’s 0.7206 peak is likely a short-term top. Downward pressure has improved and the immediate bias is tilted to the downside. That said, it is too early to expect a sustained decline. From here, AUD is expected to stay under mild downward pressure but any weakness is viewed as part of a broad 0.7100/0.7200 range and a sustained drop below 0.7100 appears unlikely.
NZD/USD: Negative phase has been ‘revived’; NZD is expected to move below 0.6660. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.
There is not much to add to the update from last Thursday (18 Apr). As highlighted, “Oversold short-term indicators suggest NZD could consolidate for a few days first but as long as the 0.6785 ‘key resistance’ remains intact, NZD is expected to move below 0.6660. Further weakness to 0.6591 is not ruled out but at this stage, the odds are not that high”. The only change is the ‘key resistance’ level, which has moved lower to 0.6750 from 0.6785.
USD/JPY: USD is expected to trade with a positive bias but 112.60 could be out of reach. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.
Volatility continues to plummet as USD traded within a grand total of 41 pips range last week (between 111.75 and 112.16). This is the narrowest 1-week range since Jan 2012. The price action offers no fresh clues even though we continue to detect a slightly positive undertone. That said, as highlighted previously, the 112.60 resistance is likely out of reach. On the downside, only a break of 111.40 (no change in ‘key support’ level) would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.
eur apr 23 Click here 
