• USD spec net G10 short in April 16-22 IMM period; $IDX -1.72% in period

• EUR$ +1.21%, specs -4.3k contracts now +65k; longs sell into strength

• $JPY -1.08% in period, specs +6k contracts new ATH 188.1k; haven flows reigned

• GBP$ +0.75%, spec +14k contracts now +14k; flat specs buy GBP strength

• $CAD -1.04%, specs +17k contracts now -67.2k; Shorts cover on USD slide

• Fed and tariff temperature greatly reduced lifted USD post-period close

• Macro space remains fluid as tariff situation, Trump temperament remains fluid

Majors w/IMM Performance Chart:


IMM Position Table as of April 22:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Sterling holds slight loss -0.11% at 1.3325 in NY afternoon, Fri range 1.3343-1.3275

• Pair caught w/in 1.3234-1.3448 range this week, since Trump-Powell drama ended

• Sterling steadies near 2025 high as tariff tensions ease nL6N3R30JE

• Tariff uncertainty remains key driver of FX, macro volatility; situation still fluid

• Talk of So. Korea, China trade progress aids risk bid; commods reverse early dip

• GBP$ res 1.3343 Friday high, 1.3420 upper 30-d Bolli, 1.3434 Sep 26 2024 high

• Supt 1.3285 bruised 10-DMA has held last 3 days, 1.3067 50% of 1.2712-1.3423

• A cls sub-1.3067 will negate the bullish structure, put early Apr low 1.2712 in view
Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6380 after pair traded 0.64215-0.6375 overnight, pair lifted in NY

• US yield weighed on the US$; USD/CNH fell towards 7.2850

• AUD/JPY, equity , copper rallies helped to underpin AUD/USD

• 0.6403 traded before pair dipped slightly, AUD/USD was down only -0.21% late

• Support from 10-DMA, rising monthly RSI, monthly bull hammer are bullish signals

• AUD/USD's consolidation phase reinforces the bullish signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

Danske Bank expects USD/JPY to decline gradually toward 130 over the next 12 months, with a near-term target of 138 in one month. Support for the yen comes from narrowing rate differentials, safe-haven demand, and resilient Japanese yields.

Key Points:

• Gradual Yen Strengthening Expected:

  • One-month target: 138

  • Three-month: 136

  • Six-month: 133

  • Twelve-month: 130

• Rate Differentials Driving the Move:

  • Relative rise in Japanese yields has reduced the appeal of USD/JPY carry trades.

  • Continued Fed rate cuts expected to contrast with potential BoJ tightening.

• Safe-Haven Flows Supporting JPY:

  • Ongoing global risk-off sentiment favors traditional safe-haven currencies like the yen.

  • JPY has shown greater resilience than other G10 peers to recent tariff headlines.

Conclusion:

Danske maintains a bearish USD/JPY outlook with a forecasted decline to 138 in the short term and 130 by mid-2025. Yen gains are expected to be driven by narrowing global rate spreads, Fed-BoJ policy divergence, and robust demand for safe-haven assets.

Sterling is fractionally lower on the day, at 1.3312, but appears poised to test and surpass this week's 2025 high at 1.3423 if global tariff tensions ease and market focus shifts back to inflation and interest rate expectations.

Cable's recent strength was driven in part by President Donald Trump’s criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious policy stance, given tariff-related growth and inflation concerns.

While tensions between the two have cooled, markets remain volatile. Still, a return to fundamentals could support further GBP/USD gains — though the macro landscape remains fluid given Trump’s shifting rhetoric on both tariffs and the Fed.

For now at least, global markets have rallied and despite continued tariff-driven noise, a renewed focus on inflation and growth could keep cable trending higher.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey noted Thursday that UK growth faces pressure from Trump’s tariffs but the BoE does not expect a recession. Bailey also expects any inflation rise in the second half of this year to be transitory.

With the BoE sticking to a data-driven, inflation-focused approach despite slowing growth, UK policy is likely to stay aligned with the Fed. This should keep sterling near its trend highs.

However, a renewed push from Trump against the Fed — or a ramp-up in tariff measures — could drive GBP/USD to new 2025 highs, with 1.3643, the early February 2022 peak, in view.
GBP Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

RBC’s technical analysis maintains a bearish bias on USD/CAD, with recent consolidation pointing to lower levels unless key support levels hold. Any rebound into the 1.4000–1.4100 range is expected to face renewed selling pressure.

Key Points:

• Support Levels in Focus:

  • Price action has stalled around 1.3822, the November low, with a hammer candle pattern suggesting temporary support.

  • A clean break below 1.3822 would nullify the bullish reversal signal and shift focus to the next support at 1.3747, then 1.3647, and 1.3540.

• Resistance Levels Established:

  • Initial resistance now sits at the short-term trendline near 1.3913.

  • Further resistance lies at 1.4011 and 1.4106, which are near the top of the expected corrective rebound range.

• Trend Confirmation:

  • The April 3 break below the February low (1.4151) confirmed a technical top, suggesting a new, lower trading range for USD/CAD.

Conclusion:

RBC expects any rallies toward the 1.4000–1.4100 zone to encounter heavy selling, reinforcing a bearish technical stance unless support at 1.3822 holds convincingly. A decisive move below this level could accelerate the decline.

• Euro softer, market fatigue sets in as volatility (VIX) edges lower

• Given euro's safety bias, calmer markets prompt unwind of longs

• Euro's struggle to reclaim 1.14 hint a market looking exhausted

• EUR/GBP slips through 200-week MA (0.8544), disappointing for bulls

• Further support at 0.8500-05 (100WMA) and below at 0.8465-75

• Month-end flows point to strong USD buying, may add to EUR/GBP pressure

• Difficulties in seeing past a more dovish BoE
EURGBP weekly chart

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

Credit Agricole adopts a bearish stance on EUR/USD, arguing that the pair is overextended and at odds with fundamental drivers. They cite a potential USD rebound, policy stabilization in the US, and adverse macro effects of the euro’s strength on the Eurozone economy as reasons for a downward reassessment.

Key Points:

• USD Weakness May Be Overdone:

  • The USD sell-off has lost momentum, and the currency appears undervalued relative to rate-based fair value models.

  • Trump’s de-escalation of trade tensions and retreat from attacking Fed independence reduce political uncertainty.

  • A potential rebound in US capital inflows could support both USD and USTs.

• EUR Rally Risks Becoming Self-Defeating:

  • Euro appreciation since early 2025 has weakened the Eurozone’s growth and inflation outlook.

  • A recent EU study estimates that sustained euro strength could subtract around 0.25% from Eurozone GDP.

  • This strengthens the case for more ECB rate cuts, potentially undermining EUR further.

• Disconnect Between EUR/USD and Rate Spreads:

  • EUR/USD’s rally has diverged from the EUR-USD rate differential, which historically anchors the pair.

  • Credit Agricole sees this divergence as unsustainable.

Conclusion:

Credit Agricole believes EUR/USD has overshot fundamentals. They expect limited further gains in the pair and maintain a bearish outlook based on rate differentials, undervalued USD metrics, and the euro’s drag on Eurozone macro conditions.

Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jan Hatzius argues that despite the dollar’s recent 5% decline, it remains significantly overvalued and poised for further depreciation. Structural portfolio imbalances and elevated valuation levels point to a multi-year adjustment.

Key Points:

• Overvaluation Still Extreme:

  • The dollar remains nearly two standard deviations above its long-term real average since 1973.

  • Comparable historical peaks in the mid-1980s and early 2000s were followed by 25–30% depreciation cycles.

• Foreign Holdings Pose Structural Risk:

  • Non-US investors hold $22 trillion in US assets, around one-third of their total portfolios.

  • About half of these holdings are unhedged equity exposures, meaning a shift in sentiment could amplify FX moves.

• Investor Rebalancing Could Trigger Declines:

  • Even a modest reduction in US portfolio exposure by international investors could drive material dollar depreciation.

  • Goldman sees this as a potential long-term headwind to the USD, rather than a temporary adjustment.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs believes the dollar has considerably further to fall, with historical precedent, current valuation metrics, and global capital flow dynamics all pointing toward a multi-quarter USD downtrend. Portfolio diversification and declining US asset appeal may fuel the adjustment.

• EUR/USD consolidates recent gains to highs since Nov 2021 at 1.1572

• Currently in mid 1.13's but don't rule out further setbacks

• Key tech support is at 1.1231 - 23.6% Fibo retrace of 1.0125-1.1572 gains

• Plenty of big FX option strike expiries and related hedging flows surround

• 3.5 billion euros of 1.1250 strikes expire at 10-am New York on Monday

• Tuesday 1.1325 €1-bln, 1.1200 €2-bln, Wednesday 1.1250 on 1.6 billion euros

• Thursday at 1.1200 on 1.6 billion and 1.1250-70 on 2.5 billion euros

• Hedging flows often draw/contain if FX spot is near strikes as expiry looms

• Related comment: Low-cost options to target next EUR/USD up-leg
EUR/USD FX option strikes expiring between April 28 and May 2


EUR=EBS

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY has risen from 142.62 to 143.85, on Friday, EBS data shows

• Mkt still seen heavy towards 144, Japanese exporters in wait?

• But it could eventually well climb to probe 144.21 Fibo

• EUR/JPY is at risk of bucking its usual positive April trend

• But USD/JPY, EUR/JPY 30-day log correlations sub +0.50, relationship weak

• Japan: no talk of FX target, yen control in dialogue with US

Daily Chart:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• End of the week and some potential USD/CAD reversal warnings

• Third week below the 20-week lower Bollinger: line at 1.3890

• Weekly action forming a hammer and bullish engulfing line

• Can see a trend acceleration before a turn: big drop w/e April 11

• Potential for a daily engulfing candle Friday

• Daily action leaving the 100-day moving average intact, today at 1.3733

• Trend reversal pointers beginning to build: could signal gains next week
USD/CAD Weekly candle chart:

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

April 25 (Reuters) - Doves will coo for a hefty half-point interest rate reduction from the European Central Bank in June if EUR/USD extends north to 1.20 in May.

Further EUR/USD gains next month, to follow its approximate 5% increase this month, could bear down on euro zone inflation - and provide a window of opportunity for the ECB to deliver an aggressive cut on June 5.

ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said on Thursday the possibility of a larger-than-normal 50 basis point cut would depend on the medium-term inflation outlook and whether the growth outlook improved or deteriorated.

Also on Thursday, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said "there's no reason to say we're always going to do the default 25" basis point moves. The ECB has delivered seven quarter-point cuts in the past year.

EUR/USD, which scaled a 41-month peak north of 1.15 at the start of this week, was last at 1.20 in June 2021.

Related:
EURUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Bullish resumption after daily consolidation phase or a weekly reversal

• Potential weekly shooting star candlestick can warn of a direction change

• Shooting star: small real body at lower end of its range, long upper shadow

• This week's price action needs to close towards the 1.3266 opening level

• Price breached the upper 20-week Bollinger this week: overbought warning

• Weekly RSI and momentum readings are also at overbought levels

• A minimum correction of the 1.2712-1.3422 rally has already been met: 1.3254

• The next Fibo levels off that move are at 1.3151 and 1.3067
GBP/USD weekly candle chart:


GBP/USD daily candle chart:

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD rally stretched - in need of a correction, longer consolidation

• Bigger rise may follow a move below 1.1280 peak 20-month Bollingers

• Support should emerge ahead 100-MMA at 1.1200

• Buyers may surface ahead prior yearly highs 1.1276 and 1.1214

• Support area between April 10 peak at 1.1242 and April 11 low at 1.1192

• Succession of four lower daily highs this week hints at deeper setback

• Target for minor correction Mar-Apr surge is 1.1252 (38.2%)

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable holds above 1.3275 after unexpectedly positive UK retail sales data

• UK March retail sales up 0.4% MM vs minus 0.4% consensus forecast

• 1.3275 = Asia low as USD rose on report China weighing US tariff exemptions

• Support points below 1.3275 include 1.3250 (NY low Wednesday) and 1.3234

• 1.3234 was Wednesday base (low since April 17). 1.3348 was Thursday high

• BoE's Bailey said he hoped expected rise in UK CPI would prove transitory

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY from 142.62 early Asia before bouncing, on way up from 142.28 NY low

• Gotobi and pre-weekend demand initially to 143.10-11, 143.80 EBS later

• Seems some specs look to cover shorts pre-weekend, Japan holidays next week

• Golden Week holidays spotty this year, some choosing to take next week off

• Bounce from top of 141.73-142.82 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Market still seen heavy towards 144.00, Japanese exporters in wait?

• Slew of option expiries between 141.95-143.75 today, affect on spot mulled

• Market awaiting any fresh news on US tariffs, FX stance, central banks

• Asia risk sentiment good, Nikkei +1.9% @35,719, E-Minis +0.4% @5533.5

• JPY crosses mostly buoyant alongside USD/JPY, market on thin side

• EUR/JPY 162.15-80 EBS, GBP/JPY 189.98-191.00, AUD/JPY 91.26-92.21

• AUD/JPY best since 92.62 on April 4, false break up or headed higher?

• Related comment , also , on Tokyo CPI
USD/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable tad heavy in Asia, 1.3342 to 1.3298, still in recent higher range

• Capped 1.3421/22 Monday/Tuesday, retracement limited to 1.3234 Wednesday

• In area of rapidly ascending daily Ichimoku tenkan at 1.3294

• Tech resistance from 1.3276-1.3328 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• 200-HMA in cloud at 1.3285, 100-HMA just above cloud at 1.3332

• Related comment , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

GBP/USD:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD 1.1372-92 EBS in Asia, quiet, in range below recent highs

• Highs of 1.1572 Monday, 1.1547 Tuesday, likely near-term caps

• Retracement low of 1.1308 Wednesday, range for now between 1.1300-1.1600?

• With market lacking confidence in USD, US assets, EUR downside limited?

• Techs suggest possible cap for in area of flat 200-HMA now at 1.1391

• Likelihood of ECB rate cut in June high, larger than 25 bps? To weigh on EUR

• Hourly Ichimoku cloud 1.1356-1.1427 with base, 1.1360 kijun supports

• Option expiries today to help cap spot?

• Massive E1.5 bln between 1.1390-1.1400 just above, E1.7 bln 1.1440-50

• EUR/JPY buoyant, 162.49-61 EBS so far in Asia, towards recent highs

• EUR/GBP tad heavy, indicated 0.8532-37, at recent lows

• Nearby option expiries today include 0.8525 E571 mln, 0.8575 E391 mln

• EUR/CHF closed New York trading bid at 0.9424, high 0.9426

• Option expiries today 0.9500 E570 mln, 0.9525 E708 mln, 0.9600-10 E704 mln

• Related comments , , also

• And , on ECB , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD:


EUR/JPY:


EUR/GBP:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY and other major currency pairs maybe have fallen into ranges

• USD/JPY 142.62-92 EBS in Asia so far, range this week 139.89-143.58

• Market still seen heavy from 143.50-60, Japanese exporters, other sellers

• Sellers include USD investors hedging assets, on de-dollarization flows

• Bidding interest on dips from Japanese importers, specs booking profits

• Tech support from hourly Ichimoku cloud currently between 141.73-142.72

• Flat-ish 200-HMA in cloud at 142.17, 100-HMA 141.72 below

• Some option expiries today between 141.95-143.75, to help anchor market?

• Little new in way of news, Kato-Bessent talks didn't discuss FX

• Both confirmed FX levels set by markets, excessive volatility undesirable

• BOJ Ueda affirmed will keep on hiking as inflation converges towards target

• Risk sentiment good with Wall Street up, as US Treasury yields fall back

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also , on US economy

• US markets , , ,

• Kato-Bessent , , BOJ Ueda

• On Fed , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD jumped late Thurs on US tariff headlines, last 0.6403

• Risk-on to drive it back into Bollinger uptrend channel 0.6415

• If confirmed, 200 DMA goal at 0.6464 will attract bulls

• Trump insists US is talking to China on trade

• But China says US must drop tariffs to solve issues

• Australia financial markets closed Friday
AUD:

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

HSBC expects limited near-term traction for the Australian dollar (AUD) despite key domestic events ahead. With a Q1 CPI print due on April 30 and general elections on May 3, the AUD may remain range-bound unless surprises in data or central bank guidance shift expectations for the RBA’s terminal rate.

Key Points:

• CPI as Primary Focus:

  • Q1 CPI on April 30 is the main domestic driver.

  • If inflation data comes in line with expectations, the RBA is likely to cut rates at its May 20 meeting.

  • A 25bp cut is already more than fully priced, so AUD reaction may be muted unless guidance shifts market pricing for future cuts.

• Australian Election Seen as Low Impact:

  • The general election on May 3 is not expected to meaningfully affect the AUD.

  • All major parties appear likely to pursue fiscal easing, limiting differentiation in economic outlooks.

• FX Positioning and Market Tone:

  • AUD has already seen a strong recovery.

  • HSBC suggests further upside is limited and consolidation is the safer outlook into next week.

Conclusion:

With easing already priced and election risks seen as minimal, HSBC expects AUD to consolidate in the near term. Only a CPI surprise or unexpected RBA guidance could jolt the pair higher or lower.

April 24 (Reuters) - The dollar index fell alongside Treasury yields on Thursday after Fed officials, while advocating for patience, cautioned about the potential adverse impact of tariffs on growth.

Sentiment remains bearish though favorable rebalancing flows at month-end may see DXY retest the 100 psychological level. Lower yields, positive earnings and optimism that U.S.-China trade tensions would ease helped lift the S&P 500 index over 1%. President Donald Trump refuted Chinese claims that the two countries have not held talks, saying there were meetings earlier in the day. Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his stance that tariffs will push down employment and growth and have a one-time effect on price pressures. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack advocated for patience though did not rule out monetary policy changes by June if the data suggested action was needed. In U.S. data, existing home sales fell the most since November 2022 in March, while weekly jobless claims edged up and durable goods orders jumped due to aircraft demand. EUR/USD held gains even after dovish messaging from European Central Bank policymakers Gediminas Simkus, Joachim Nagel, and Ollie Rehn. The ECB's chief economist, Philip Lane, said extraordinary measures are not needed because the bank still has room to cut. The German government reduced its growth forecast on Thursday. A favorable risk bias kept EUR/USD in a narrow 1.1320-1.1395 range, with weakness ahead of the London afternoon fix met by bids at the 1.1350 level.

EUR/USD needs to clear the prior day's high of 1.1440 for upward momentum build, while range support is seen at the April 15 low of 1.1264. EUR/CHF rose for a fourth day, testing its 100-day moving average at 0.9419 before comments Friday by Swiss National Bank chief Martin Schlegel. GBP/USD pared gains after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said he was focused on the tariff shock to growth. Price congestion near 1.3260 lends nearby support while this week's high of 1.3423 is resistance.

U.K. retail sales data is due on Friday. USD/JPY stayed in a narrow range as share gains sent implied volatilities broadly lower. Nikkei reported that Japan is considering buying U.S. soybeans as part of trade negotiations. Focus turns to the April Tokyo CPI reading on Friday.

USD/JPY needs to drop below 141.60 price congestion or rally past a 144 double-bottom to set near-term direction.

Kiwi and Norwegian krone were among the G10 winners.

Treasury yields fell 6 to 9 basis points. The 2s-10s curve was little changed at +51.4bp.

The S&P 500 rose 1.71%, paced by higher tech shares

Oil was up 0.66% due to a favorable risk tone.

Gold rose 1.70% as lower Treasury yields sparked new demand.

Copper edged up 0.54%. Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.65%, USD/JPY -0.63%, GBP/USD +0.64%, AUD/USD +0.74%, DXY -0.56%, EUR/JPY +0.04%, GBP/JPY +0.01%, AUD/JPY +0.13%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

• USD/JPY stays in narrow 142.28 to 143.45 EBS range as US shares rally

• Yields ease after Fed comments about future growth worries

• Some hope of trade progress after Trump said US-China reps talked

• Yen vols ease across tenors as US shares advance

• Japan considering US soybean imports as part of negotiations: Nikkei

• Focus turns to April Tokyo CPI on Friday

• Pair holds above Apr 22 high, 200-HMA; 144 double-bottom offer resist.

• Supp: 141.68, April 22 high; 141.54 Wed low; 140.48 Apr 21 low

• Resist: 143.99-144.00 April 9-10 lows; 144.55 April 4 low
Yen

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)