Feb 26 (Reuters) - A tepid session for EUR/USD with the pair anchored to the 1.05 handle, though traders' ongoing reluctance to chase the pair higher means that the 100-day MA at 1.0528 may continue to keep a lid on the single currency. The recent narrative on whether the U.S. exceptionalism trade has peaked will be given a fresh update with Nvidia due to deliver their earnings after-market. Softer figures here will likely spill over into FX, resulting in a soggier dollar, given that this would further underpin the view that the U.S. is looking less exceptional. While popular Trump-related trades, ranging from cryptocurrencies, U.S. tech and the dollar have run out of steam, an extension in the move lower for the greenback is far from clear cut. Aside from the yen, which is backed by a central bank that is becoming increasingly hawkish, there are few in the way of notable alternatives.

Alongside this, tariff risks remain a pillar of support for the dollar. This is evidenced by the latest bid in USD/CAD leading into the March 4 deadline. For now, in light of the sharp moves across U.S. yields, this is likely to be the key driver for the dollar in the short-term.
usd vs tech vs btc

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)