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By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 25 - 11:55 AM

EUR/USD rallied Thursday but traded in a manner suggesting consolidation is taking place, which may leave investors at the mercy of June U.S. PCE to determine if bearish daily technicals will trump longer-term bullish signals.

Daily technicals highlight downside risks.
Consolidation of the drop from the July 17 daily high persists, EUR/USD trades below the 10-DMA and the thinning daily cloud will twist July 31 and could act magnetically.

Longer-term technicals likely give EUR/USD longs some comfort, however.

Monthly RSI is rising and EUR/USD trades above the 55- and 200-DMAs.
Monthly charts also show a large bull pennant continuation pattern is in place.

June PCE, especially the core readings, could upset the balanced technicals.

Month-on-month PCE is estimated at +0.1% from May's 0.0% while year-on-year is estimated to drop to 2.5% from 2.6% in May.

The Fed has been pleased that recent pricing data indicate disinflation is in place so any upside PCE surprise could reinforce bearish daily technicals.

An upside beat could rally yields US2YT=RR significantly since they've been trending lower since April.

Investors may lower the probability of the Fed cutting 75bps in 2024, which currently trades above 90% USIRP25F4=R.

spreads US2DE2=RR may widen and increase the dollar's yield advantage over the euro.

EUR/USD might then validate daily tech signals with a sharp downward move.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 25 - 11:00 AM


Bank of America (BofA) continues to project a bullish outlook for the EUR/USD pair, targeting a rise to 1.12 by the end of the year. This forecast is grounded in recent macroeconomic trends and a shift in market sentiment due to disinflationary signals in the US, which have increased expectations for faster Fed rate cuts.

Key Points:

  1. Current Market Sentiment:

    • Macro Data Influence: This summer, FX markets have been heavily influenced by macroeconomic data rather than political headlines, with a particular focus on disinflationary trends in the US.
    • Shift from Inflation Surprises: Earlier in the year, unexpected inflationary pressures supported USD strength and delayed Fed rate normalization. The current disinflationary environment marks a significant shift from those earlier trends.
  2. Expectations for Fed Policy:

    • Faster Rate Cuts: The continued disinflation in the US is fueling expectations that the Fed might implement rate cuts more quickly than previously anticipated.
    • Impact on USD: These expectations are contributing to a weaker USD outlook, supporting BofA's bullish forecast for EUR/USD.
  3. EUR/USD Year-End Target:

    • Target of 1.12: BofA maintains its year-end target for EUR/USD at 1.12, reflecting a broader view of USD overvaluation.
    • Longer-Term Outlook: The bank's longer-term forecasts also suggest sustained USD weakness, underlining the expectation that the current valuation of the USD is higher than justified by fundamentals.


BofA's bullish outlook on EUR/USD is underpinned by disinflationary trends in the US and the subsequent expectations for faster Fed rate cuts. This scenario supports a weaker USD, aligning with BofA's year-end target of 1.12 for EUR/USD. The bank's analysis indicates that the USD is currently overvalued, reinforcing their longer-term forecasts for continued USD depreciation.

BofA Global Research
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 25 - 07:35 AM
  • EUR/USD fell to 1.08288 on EBS overnight with help from French, German data

  • EUR/JPY drop to 164.845, stock ESv1 & commodity XAU=LCOc1 also weighed

  • EUR/USD then turned positive, hit 1.0859, NY opened near 1.0850, up +0.11%

  • US yield US2YT=RR drop & USD/CNH drop to 7.2037 helped lift EUR/USD

  • EUR/USD rallied back above the 21-DMA & 38.2% Fibo of 1.0666-1.09485

  • Daily doji formed & pair traded within Wednesday's daily range

  • Pair appears to be consolidating the drop from the July 17 daily high

  • Rising monthly RSI, hold above 55- & 200-DMAs gives longs some comfort

  • US weekly claims, Q2 GDP, June durable goods risks on tap for today

  • July Tokyo CPI, US June PCE are due Friday; could be big risk events

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 25 - 09:30 AM


Credit Agricole highlights the importance of the upcoming Australian CPI data in determining the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision for the August meeting. The data's impact on AUD/USD will also be influenced by global equity market volatility and upcoming US technology stock earnings.

Key Points:

  1. Drivers of AUD/USD:

    • Global Equity Market Performance: Approximately half as important as the Australian-US short-term rates differential.
    • Increased Volatility: Recent spikes in global equity market volatility have elevated its significance as a driver for AUD/USD.
  2. Focus on US Technology Stock Earnings:

    • Heavyweights Reporting: Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon are scheduled to report their earnings, which will be closely watched by investors.
  3. Australian CPI Data:

    • Market Expectations: The Australian rates market is currently pricing in only about a 20% chance of a 25bp rate hike by the RBA in August.
    • Impact of Upside Surprise: An upside surprise in the CPI data would likely boost the AUD.
  4. Trading Implications for AUD/USD:

    • Against NZD: Most gains from a positive CPI surprise would be seen against the NZD.
    • Selling Opportunity: Any bump in AUD/USD might be viewed by investors as a selling opportunity if risk sentiment remains negative.


Credit Agricole emphasizes that next week's Australian CPI data will be crucial for the RBA's decision-making process in August. The outcome, combined with the performance of US technology stocks, will significantly influence AUD/USD movements. An upside surprise in CPI data would be positive for the AUD, especially against the NZD, though continued risk aversion could lead to selling opportunities in AUD/USD.

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 25 - 08:43 AM


Societe Generale (SocGen) anticipates a significant correction in the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Euro (EUR) over the long term, driven by a new Federal Reserve (Fed) easing cycle expected to start in September 2024.

Key Points:

  1. DXY High Unlikely to be Revisited Soon:

    • DXY Index: The high reached in September 2022 is likely to hold for several years.
    • Fed Easing Cycle: With a new easing cycle set to begin in September 2024, the dollar is expected to be capped, limiting its strength.
  2. USD/JPY Projections:

    • Current Context: The yen has been the biggest loser from rising US rates and yields.
    • Long-term Target: SocGen forecasts USD/JPY to fall back to 140 by early 2025.
  3. EUR/USD Projections:

    • Potential Rally: EUR/USD may at some point in 2024/2025 reach the 2022 high of 1.15.
    • Longer-term Outlook: Achieving levels above 1.20 would require a significant US recession or a more fundamental shift in the European economic outlook, which is currently not foreseeable.
  4. Overall USD Outlook:

    • Correction Potential: While a significant correction is expected, the extent of the dollar's fall is limited by the relatively strong US economic fundamentals compared to pre-Covid levels.
    • Rate Levels: Rates are unlikely to return to pre-Covid levels unless the US economy slows much more than expected.


SocGen's long-term forecasts suggest a weakening USD against JPY and EUR as the Fed enters an easing cycle. They project USD/JPY to fall to 140 and EUR/USD to potentially reach 1.15 by 2025, with further significant gains for the euro dependent on more profound shifts in economic conditions.

Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 25 - 07:20 AM
  • AUD/USD traded 0.6582-0.6519 overnight, a 2-1/2-month low was struck

  • Pair opened NY near 0.6525, was down -0.87% in early NY trading

  • Pair fell below the daily cloud base, 61.8% Fib of 0.63625-0.67985

  • AUD/JPY fall to 99.23, commodity DCIOc2, HGv1 drops weighed on AUD/USD

  • Equity ESv1, gold XAU= drops helped weigh on the pair as well

  • Pair fell despite USD/CNH hitting a 2-1/2-mo low, US yield US2YT=RR drop

  • Techs are bearish; RSIs falling, monthly bear engulfing candle in place

  • US weekly claims, Q2 GDP, June durable goods are data risks Thursday

  • July Tokyo CPI, US June PCE due Friday, may significantly impact risk

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jul 25 - 06:05 AM
  • Yen rises sharply as carry trades unwind, risk mood sours nL1N3JH06Q

  • Japan's USD/JPY intervention may well have worked nL1N3JG1GB

  • USD/JPY has dropped from 153.97 to 151.95, on Thursday, on EBS data

  • The break, close under 154.22 Fibo, a 50% Fibo, is very bearish nL1N3JH09S

  • 154.22 Fibo, 50% retrace of the 146.48 to 161.96 (March to July) EBS rise

  • USD/JPY options keen to cover sub 150 risk nL1N3JH0CS

  • Note EUR/JPY continues to move in tandem with USD/JPY, correlation is high

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jul 25 - 05:10 AM
  • JPY option dealers note end-user demand sub 1-month expiry strikes below 150

  • These strikes still 250 JPY pips from current spot, but not out of reach

  • USD/JPY already mid 157's to 151.95 this week, still face Fed and BoJ risk

  • Technicals show scope for a big slide through May's 151.86 low nL1N3JH09S

  • 150.00 is key psychological level - break could extend to 145.00

  • Holders of 150.00 JPY call options have right to sell at 150.00 at expiry

  • Premium will increase if USD/JPY keeps falling/implied volatility gaining

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jul 25 - 03:45 AM

Japan's recent interventions to sell the dollar and buy yen have pushed USD/JPY into bearish territory and darkened its chart outlook, suggesting even bigger moves may lie ahead.

Japanese buying to defend the yen is becoming a standard feature of the FX landscape in 2024, but authorities in Tokyo have switched up their methods, making it trickier for investors to second-guess when and how they might step in.

It seems to have worked.
The yen has strengthened, pushing USD/JPY below the Japanese Ichimoku daily cloud that currently spans the 155.94-156.81 region.

Scope is growing for a bigger USD/JPY slide to retest May's 151.86 low.
The bearish outlook is reinforced by a negative fourteen-day momentum reading.
As 30- and 60-day correlations between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are both above +0.80, that will likely see EUR/JPY slump with USD/JPY in coming sessions.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jul 25 - 03:05 AM
  • As USD/JPY continues to trade under the Ichimoku daily cloud: bearish

  • The daily cloud currently spans the 155.94-156.81 region

  • There is scope for a big slide through May's 151.86 low in coming sessions

  • The daily close on Wednesday under key 154.22 Fibo adds to the bearish bias

  • 154.22 Fibo, 50% retrace of the 146.48 to 161.96 (March to July) EBS rise

  • Also note the fourteen-day momentum reading remains negative

  • USD/JPY Trader TGM2336. Previous update nL1N3JF1G6. Offer at 154.00

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jul 25 - 02:25 AM
  • GBP/USD's Wed rebound capped by the 10-day moving average, 1.2942

  • Wed doji star into a bearish Thurs start

  • Fourteen day momentum is poised to flip negative

  • Daily RS now 55 from a massively over bought 75 reading

  • Marginal removal of Fibo support at 1.2879 last session

  • The 50% retrace of the 1.2613-1.3044 rally provides a target at 1.2829

  • We remain short from 1.2935 for 1.2680

  • GBP/USD trader TGM2338

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  Jul 25 - 02:05 AM
  • USD/JPY tanking 1.1% to 152.23 brings into view key support

  • 200 DMA at 151.54 at risk of breaking as momentum gains

  • If breached, technical cue to sell will weigh toward 150.00

  • That psychological barrier will attract stop-loss hunting

  • Carry trade unwinding underway as BOJ might hike next week

  • US yields under pressure as well, before US core PCE Fri

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  Jul 24 - 11:35 PM
  • EUR/USD propped up, last 1.0844, treading water above 21 DMA

  • Moderate range 1.0835-1.0844 traded in Asia even as stocks slump

  • Steady, amid broad USD weakness inspired by USD/JPY tanking

  • 21 DMA and 38.2% Fibo coincide near 1.0840 to support

  • 200 DMA not far below at 1.0819 reinforces the downside

  • Traders may wait and see before US inflation data on Fri

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Jul 24 - 09:50 PM
  • USD/JPY drops to fresh 2-1/2 mth low as risk sentiment deteriorates further

  • China central bank cuts 1-year MLF rate to 2.3% vs. 2.5, an out-of-cycle cut

  • Accentuates risk aversion as taken as a sign of panic over weak economy

  • JPY sought as safe-haven, carry trade unwind accelerates

  • Rate hike speculation swirls ahead of next week's BOJ meeting, supports JPY

  • Support 152.40, 61.8% of March-July rally; resistance 153.40-50

  • Asia range 153.97-152.64

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  Jul 24 - 08:35 PM
  • USD/JPY falls more after 100 DMA break on Wed; Nikkei -2.6%

  • Last 153.30, with eyes on next support at 200 DMA 151.55

  • BOJ could hike again, cut bond buying next week nL4N3JG09I

  • Top FX diplomat refrains from comment on yen nS0N3J4011

  • Japan plans record hike in minimum wage, NHK reports

  • Labour ministry wants 5% rise in average wage nL4N3JG13L

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  Jul 24 - 07:45 PM
  • EUR/USD last 1.0839; descent showing signs of stalling

  • Hesitation around 38.2% Fibo 1.0840 may worry shorts

  • 200 DMA just below at 1.0819 might be a strong support

  • Profit-taking, potential bounce off 200 DMA may play out

  • Ahead of US PCE data Fri, some EUR/USD shorts may trim bets

  • Expectations likely already priced for slower US inflation

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  Jul 24 - 07:35 PM
  • USD/JPY last 153.72, has room to fall till 200 DMA 151.55

  • Wed break of 100 DMA, below Ichimoku cloud, spurs sellers

  • 100 DMA at 155.44 will be a strong intraday ceiling

  • Top reinforced by cloud at 155.94, Bollinger band 156.20

  • Bets on BOJ hike next week, earlier Fed cut sink USD/JPY

  • UST yield curve steepened with front end 2y tumbling, 10y up

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 24 - 03:00 PM


Nomura maintains a bearish outlook on the Chinese Yuan (CNY), citing broader macroeconomic and balance of payments (BoP) weaknesses despite some bond inflows. They express this view through short CNH versus CFETS basket and long USD/CNY NDF positions.

Key Points:

  1. Bond Inflows:

    • May Inflows: There were significant offshore bond inflows in May amounting to USD24bn.
    • June Slowdown: These inflows slowed down in June, with net inflows dropping to USD12.5bn.
    • NCD Inflows: June's net inflows were primarily driven by Negotiable Certificate of Deposit (NCD) inflows, which were largely FX-hedged, amounting to USD11.3bn.
  2. Yield Spread:

    • Widening Spread: The 1-year AAA NCD and 1-year USD/CNY implied yield spread widened in June, with an average spread of +112bp compared to +100bp in May. This widening spread was a factor in the bond inflows.
  3. Macroeconomic and BoP Weaknesses:

    • Broad Weakness: Nomura points to broader macroeconomic and BoP outlook weaknesses as reasons for the expected underperformance of the CNY.
    • Continued Bearish View: Despite the bond inflows, the overall macroeconomic and BoP context suggests continued pressure on the CNY.
  4. Strategic Positioning:

    • Short CNH: Nomura maintains a short position on the offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) versus the CFETS basket.
    • Long USD/CNY NDF: They also hold a long position on the USD/CNY Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF), indicating expectations of further depreciation of the CNY against the USD.


Nomura continues to hold a bearish stance on the CNY, driven by broader macroeconomic and BoP challenges. Despite some bond inflows, the overall outlook remains negative, prompting Nomura to maintain their short position on CNH versus the CFETS basket and a long position on USD/CNY NDF.

Nomura Research/Market Commentary
By Burton Frierson  —  Jul 24 - 03:00 PM

The dollar index eased slightly on Wednesday, under pressure from another spike higher in the yen, as markets took on a safe-haven tone while investors were also preparing for the business end of this week's data schedule and a BoJ meeting at the end of the month.

Stock market losses lent to the negative sentiment, with Wall Street under pressure after Tesla and Alphabet disappointed with lackluster earnings.

Global PMIs were also less than impressive on the whole, with euro zone broadly disappointing while UK and U.S. editions were mixed.

In particular, S&P Global showed that while U.S. business activity climbed to a 27-month high in July, firms appeared to have some difficulty sustaining higher prices for their goods and services amid resistance from consumers.

Traders will turn their focus to U.S. advance Q2 GDP data on Thursday and Friday's U.S. PCE data, which is closely watched by the Fed.

Treasury yields recovered from earlier lows, with two- and three-year yields still down 2-3bp in New York afternoon trade while longer maturities were 1-7bp higher.

The S&P 500 was down 2.08% and the Nasdaq slumped as the Tesla and Alphabet disappointments prompted investors to question if the Big Tech- and AI-fueled 2024 equity rally was sustainable in the long run.

WTI was up 0.73%, as oil was supported by large draws in U.S. crude and fuel stocks, but hovering close to its lowest level in six weeks due to concerns over weak global demand.

Copper was down 1.67% after falling to its lowest in three-and-a-half months, hurt by rising inventory and selling by commodity trading funds.

Gold was little changed.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.16%, USD/JPY -1.00%, GBP/USD -0.03%, AUD/USD -0.5%, GBP/USD -1.26%, EUR/JPY -1.15%, AUD/JPY -1.50%

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 24 - 01:35 PM
  • NY opened near 1.0840 after 1.08258 traded on EBS overnight

  • Pair rallied early on the back of EUR/JPY bounce & US data influences

  • US yield US2YT=RR drop extended after S&P Global PMI, new home sales

  • DE-US spreads US2DE2=RR tightened, EUR/JPY rallied towards 166.80

  • Those helped EUR/USD rally to 1.08668 but the pair slid as US$ firmed

  • Sharp drop in equity ESv1 markets helped weigh on EUR/USD

  • EUR/USD slid towards 1.0850, traded down only -0.03% late in the day

  • A daily doji candle formed which suggests investors are indecisive

  • US Q2 GDP, weekly claims & June durable goods are data risks Thursday

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 24 - 11:45 AM

EUR/USD erased its losses after piercing the 21-DMA and striking a 10-session low Wednesday and longs could gain some traction if aggressive yen buying abates.

U.S. existing home sales hit a 7-month low for June and July S&P Global PMIs indicated companies are losing pricing power and that employment growth is slowing.

The data helped U.S. Treasury two-year yields US2YT=TWEB trade below 4.40% and hit a 5-month low.

The yield move eroded some of the dollar's yield advantage over the euro.
2-year spreads, which EUR/USD is typically correlated with, hit their tightest since July 16 and neared resistance in the -165/-164bps area.

EUR/USD was unable to mount a significant rally despite those influences.

Aggressive yen buying sent EUR/JPY to a 2-1/2-month low of 166.165.
The pair had traded near 175.50 on July 11.
The sharp EUR/JPY fall is likely blunting influences from U.S. data and yields.

Should EUR/JPY selling abate or a rally ensue EUR/USD longs may gain some traction, but they still face major risks from upcoming U.S. economic data.

Q2 GDP, weekly claims are due Thursday while June PCE is released Friday.

Should results indicate slowing employment and economic growth and disinflation is persisting EUR/JPY's impact may evaporate.

yields and the dollar could sink in that scenario as investors will expect the Fed to become less restrictive, which would increase EUR/USD upside risks.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 24 - 12:00 PM


ING assesses that EUR/GBP appears undervalued at 0.84 while GBP/USD seems overvalued at 1.29, especially in light of recent market movements and interest rate differentials.

Key Points:

  1. Recent Market Movements:

    • EUR/USD Adjustment: The recent downward adjustment in EUR/USD aligns with the general strengthening of the dollar against G10 currencies.
    • GBP Reaction: Attention is now on whether GBP, another European pro-cyclical outperformer, will soften, especially if markets increase the probability of an August Bank of England rate cut to over 50% following a potential rate cut by the Bank of Canada.
  2. Valuation Assessments:

    • EUR/GBP: At 0.84, EUR/GBP looks rather cheap, suggesting that the euro may be undervalued relative to the pound given the current rate differentials.
    • GBP/USD: At 1.29, GBP/USD appears rather expensive, indicating that the pound may be overvalued relative to the dollar considering the interest rate differentials.


ING suggests that the current levels of EUR/GBP and GBP/USD may not fully reflect the underlying rate differentials. Specifically, EUR/GBP looks undervalued at 0.84, and GBP/USD seems overvalued at 1.29, warranting potential adjustments in these pairs based on market dynamics and interest rate expectations.

ING Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 24 - 08:00 AM
  • EUR/USD traded 1.0854-1.08258 on EBS overnight, a 10-session low was hit

  • German, EZ July PMIs fueled concerns growth is slowing, weighed on the euro

  • EUR/JPY drop to a 2-1/2 month low of 167.105 (EBS) also weighed on EUR/USD

  • Most of EUR/USD drop erased with help from tighter DE-US spreads US2DE2=RR

  • Lift in oil LCOc1, gold XAU= weighed on US$ which helped lift EUR/USD

  • EUR/USD opened NY near 1.0840, pair traded down only -0.08% in early NY

  • Daily RSI is falling but monthly is rising, daily bull hammer candle formed

  • US June building permits, July S&P Global PMIs reports due in NY's morning

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 24 - 09:30 AM


MUFG warns that the Japanese yen (JPY) may relinquish its recent gains if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) does not meet market expectations for policy tightening at their upcoming meeting. Although there is room for Japanese yields to rise, the yen's sustained rebound depends significantly on global central banks, particularly the Fed, lowering interest rates.

Key Points:

  1. Market Expectations and BoJ Policy:

    • Room for Yield Adjustment: MUFG believes there is room for Japanese yields to adjust higher as the market is under-pricing the BoJ's potential rate hike cycle.
    • Slowdown in JGB Purchases: The BoJ is expected to announce plans to significantly reduce Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchases over the coming years, supporting higher yields.
  2. Impact of Global Central Banks:

    • Fed's Role: For a sustained yen rebound, it is crucial that the Fed and other major central banks lower interest rates towards neutral levels in response to slowing inflation.
    • US CPI Report: The weaker US CPI report for June has bolstered market confidence that the Fed will actively cut rates in the year ahead, aiding the yen's recovery.
  3. Risks of BoJ Disappointment:

    • Recent Yen Gains: The yen has seen strong gains recently, partly due to the anticipation of BoJ policy tightening.
    • Potential Reversal: If the BoJ fails to meet market expectations for tightening at the upcoming policy meeting, the yen could quickly lose its recent gains.


MUFG highlights that while higher Japanese yields and expectations for reduced JGB purchases support the yen, the currency's sustained rebound relies heavily on global central banks lowering rates in response to slowing inflation. The upcoming BoJ meeting is pivotal; any disappointment in policy tightening could lead to the yen quickly giving back its recent gains.

MUFG Research/Market Commentary
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