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TDUX
Nov 09 - 02:55 PM
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ANZ: Three Channels Could Bring AUD/NZD to 1.30

By eFXdata  —  Nov 09 - 01:00 PM

AZN Research sees a scope for AUD/NZD to extend its upside towards 1.30 over the coming weeks.

"The RBNZ’s late-October decision to hold the OCR at 2.75% wrong-footed a market pricing a greater than 80% probability of a 25bp hike. AUD/NZD briefly traded above 1.26 in the aftermath, its highest since early 2013. The cross has since retraced to around 1.24, in line with our year-end forecast.

Our central case is that the pair remains around 1.24, but upside risks are material," ANZ notes.

"Three channels could challenge our view and bring 1.30 into focus: persistent growth divergence, a dovish repricing of the RBNZ outlook and an energy-driven terms-of-trade shock," ANZ adds.

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary
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