Synopsis:
BofA's latest report delves into the variances in investment flows that have shaped the trajectory of the USD this year. Unlike the previous year, where there was a distinct and unanimous thrust towards USDEM FX buying up to 3Q, this year's narrative is marked by more diverse regional attitudes.
Key Highlights:
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Evolving Regional Patterns: This year's investment backdrop lacks the unified theme of the previous year. BofA's investors, regardless of region, have largely divested from EUR and CHF. Beyond this, the consensus ends.
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Differing Stances on USD and LatAm FX: Investors based in Asia have been the primary propellants behind the USD and LatAm FX. In contrast, AMRS investors have approached these currencies with caution.
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Contrasting Views on JPY and GBP: JPY has found favor with AMRS and EMEA investors, but Asian investors have divested. The GBP, which faced a significant sell-off from EMEA investors last year, has seen a resurgence in buying this year.
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Varied Sentiments on EM FX: AMRS investors have exhibited an inclination towards EM FX across all regions (with a reduced emphasis on LatAm). EMEA investors, on the other hand, have majorly divested, while Asian investors have leaned into LatAm but pulled away from EMEA EM.
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Driving Forces of the Recent USD Rally: The recent ascendancy of the USD can largely be attributed to the efforts of EMEA and Asian investors.
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Hedge Funds and Real Money Alignment: Intriguingly, the chief regional "biases" this year echo across both Hedge Funds and Real Money, indicating a potentially coordinated investment approach or shared sentiment.
Conclusion:
BofA’s examination underscores the complexities of this year's regional flows behind the USD's performance. While 2022 was marked by a uniform sentiment, 2023 presents a mosaic of regional perspectives, making the prediction and understanding of currency trajectories a nuanced affair. Investors need to remain vigilant to the intricacies of regional flows to navigate the evolving landscape effectively.