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Aug 30 - 06:55 PM

AUD: Staying Long AUD Vs An Equally Weighted Basket Of EUR And GBP - Nomura

By eFXdata  —  Aug 30 - 03:00 PM

Nomura Research discusses AUD outlook and maintains a long exposure against an equally weighted basket of EUR and GBP.

"Our short EUR (50%) and short GBP (50%) versus long AUD position performed moderately well. We retain conviction at 3/5 and look for an approximate 4move, by end-October, and from our entry levels on 18 August," Nomura notes. 

"Our position remains exposed to risk from a major swing in global sentiment, but we believe that likely respective (near-term) macro performance and respective terms of trade shifts (favouring Australia over Europe) offer significant underlying fundamental support. There is little local near-term news of significance, ahead of the RBA meeting on 6 September, at which point we remain very confident that it will deliver a fourth-consecutive 50bp rate hike. However, until we reach this point, we expect AUD will largely remain driven by global themes," Nomura adds. 

Source:
Nomura Research/Market Commentary

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