• US dollar gains against Japanese yen

• Canadian dollar slides, euro under pressure

• Sterling at two-week low after UK economy shrinks in May

• Bitcoin at record high on renewed regulatory optimism

(Updates headline, first paragraph and prices throughouts, adds new analyst comment)

By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Chibuike Oguh

NEW YORK, July 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose against major currencies including the yen and euro as President Donald Trump rekindled trade tensions with new tariffs on Canada and other trading partners.

Trump issued a letter late on Thursday that said a 35% tariff rate on all imports from Canada would apply from August 1. The European Union was set to receive a letter by Friday.

The U.S. president, whose global wave of tariffs has upended businesses and policymaking, floated a blanket 15% or 20% tariff rate on other countries, a step up from the current 10% baseline rate.

This week he surprised Brazil, which has a trade surplus with the United States, with duties of 50%, and hit copper, pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips.

"There do appear to be some tariff jitters creeping in once again after Trump floating the blanket tariffs yesterday," Michael Brown, market analyst at online broker Pepperstone in London, said.

"Overall the moves that we have seen in the FX space are relatively contained, and recent ranges seem to still be respected for the time being," he added.

The U.S. dollar was up 0.79% to 147.4 against the Japanese yen , on track to add nearly 2% for the week - the biggest weekly gain since early December. It was flat against the Swiss franc at 0.79695 franc.

The euro was 0.1% lower at $1.1688, after Trump said the European Union could receive a letter on tariff rates by Friday, throwing into question the progress of Brussels' trade talks with Washington. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.6% to 147.05 yen.

The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart and was down 0.11% at C$1.3672, following a knee-jerk fall of more than 0.5% after Trump unveiled the tariff rate. The Brazilian real was 0.26% lower against the dollar.

The market reaction to the slew of new tariffs has been largely muted compared to the manic sell-off that followed April's "Liberation Day" announcement, but investors remain on edge over the future of global trade and whether the August 1 deadline is final.

While the resurgence of tariff worries was helping support the buck, some traders remained sceptical about the medium-term outlook for the U.S. currency which has come under severe selling pressure this year.

"My base case remains for a slow but steady USD depreciation over the medium-term, but we have clearly already fallen a long way, in a short space of time, so there is scope for a bit of a rebound, especially if some of the more recent USD shorts begin to get squeezed," Pepperstone's Brown said.

Also supporting the dollar were data suggesting labour market resilience and minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting that tempered market expectations for imminent interest rate cuts.

The dollar index is down nearly 10% so far this year, on worries that data could soon reflect more widely the damage U.S. policies have had on the world's largest economy. It rose 0.28% to 97.85, on track to notch a weekly gain and snap two consecutive weeks of losses.

"USD/CAD has kept most of its gains after a meaningful knee-jerk rally on the announcement, but with those gains coming from the Dollar leg, with cross/CAD generally close to flat versus pre-announcement," Goldman Sachs analysts led by Stuart Jenkins said in an investor note.

Elsewhere, sterling was down 0.54% at a two-week low at $1.35050, as data showed Britain's economy contracted unexpectedly for a second month running in May.

Cryptocurrencies saw a boost, driven by institutional investor demand and crypto-friendly U.S. policies. Bitcoin

advanced 3.7% and scaled yet another record high of $118,832, while ethereum jumped 5.9% to $2,987.15

"The ... new record reflects the resilience of global risk appetite even in the face of Trump tariffs, as well as high optimism over U.S. legislative proposals," DBS FX and credit strategist Chang Wei Liang said.

He was referring to measures the U.S. House is set to advance in its upcoming 'Crypto Week'.

G10 currency moves against the US dollar

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Chibuike Oguh in New York, Rae Wee and Johann M Cherian; Editing by Christopher Cushing, Clarence Fernandez, Joe Bavier, Andrew Heavens and Diane Craft)

((; @SaqibReports; +1 332 219 1971; Reuters Messaging: rm:///))

• USD IMM net spec G10 short +$0.23bn in July 2-8 reporting period; $IDX +0.86%

• USD catching bid on steady Fed and more austere, read inflationary, Trump tariff policy

• Euro and GBP specs fade weakness, buying dips despite steady Fed talk

• EUR$ -0.73% in period, specs +13.1k contracts now +121k ; ECB near end of cut path

• $JPY +2.24%, specs -11.2k contracts now +116.2k; steady Fed and less-hawkish BoJ

• GBP$ -1.15%, specs +1.8k contracts now +33.2k; soft UK data, dovish BoE weigh on GBP

• $CAD +0.1% in period; specs -8.2k contracts now -71.6k; tariff tumult stalls CAD bull momentum

Majors w/IMM Performance:


IMM Position Table:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ hover near session lows in NY afternoon, -0.52% at 1.3510; Fri range 1.3583-1.3481

• Ramped up tariff tumult and soft UK GDP, output data sink sterling

• Sterling weakens as UK GDP raises rate cut concerns

• UK retail sales Monday, U.S. CPI Tues, UK CPI Wed in focus for clues to UK, U.S. rate policy

• LSEG's IRPR shows Fed, BoE policy on parallel path in 2025; Fed more dovish in H2 2026

• GBP$ consolidates below its 10-DMA at 1.3629, finding support by rising 55-DMA 1.3482

• Supt at 1.3481 Friday low, 1.3447 the daily cloud top, 1.3409 rising lower 30-d Bolli

• Res Friday high 1.3583, 1.3629 th falling 10-DMA, 1.3748 upper 30-d Bolli

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

RBC remains constructive on GBP/USD over the medium term, arguing that despite a lack of natural hedging flows, sterling offers investors an attractive way to position for structural USD weakness driven by de-dollarization rather than just the Fed rate cycle.

Key Points:

• No Hedging Boost: The UK’s negative NIIP and near-zero hedging costs for USD assets mean GBP won’t benefit from the same FX hedging flows expected to support EUR.

• De-dollarization Angle: For investors betting on long-term USD decline driven by global diversification away from USD assets, GBP/USD calls could be a relatively cheap tail-risk hedge.

• Risk Reversals: GBP/USD is one of the few G10 pairs where longer-dated risk reversals still show demand for USD calls over puts, making sterling undervalued for this purpose.

• Relative Outlook: RBC expects EUR/GBP to trend higher in 2026 as EUR benefits from both hedging demand and German fiscal expansion, while GBP remains structurally undervalued.

Conclusion:

RBC sees long GBP/USD as an attractive medium-term trade to capture potential USD weakness, particularly for those looking to diversify away from the USD structurally. EUR remains the better relative hedge beneficiary, but GBP/USD could offer asymmetric upside for investors worried about de-dollarization trends.

• Shares of gold miners rise, tracking rise in bullion price [GOL/]

• Spot gold up 1% at $3,355.89/ounce, its highest price since July 3

• Prices rise as investors rush towards safe-haven assets after U.S. President Donald Trump widened the global trade war with an announcement of new tariffs

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining up marginally

• South African miners Gold Fields up 1%, Harmony Gold rises 1.4%, AngloGold Ashanti up marginally and Sibanye Stillwater gains 2.9%

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines and Kinross Gold up 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively
(Reporting by Katha Kalia in Bengaluru)

Synopsis:

MUFG notes that Q1 2025 COFER data revealed large reserve manager selling of the Japanese yen and Australian dollar, while Swiss franc holdings surged. Despite some caution on the euro, a recent OMFIF survey points to improving sentiment that could support EUR demand.

Key Points:

• USD Holdings Steady: The global USD share of FX reserves stayed almost unchanged in Q1, showing the dollar’s resilience in reserve portfolios.

• JPY & AUD Heavy Selling: Reserve managers sharply cut JPY and AUD holdings, highlighting ongoing structural outflows from these currencies.

• CHF Gains: There was a striking increase in Swiss franc holdings, showing its continued appeal as a reserve haven amid geopolitical risks.

• EUR Outlook Mixed: The OMFIF Global Public Investor Survey indicates reserve managers remain cautious on the EUR for now, but sentiment is shifting positively, suggesting more inflows could come.

Conclusion:

While reserve managers held their USD allocations steady in Q1, they aggressively sold JPY and AUD and sharply increased CHF holdings. Signs of improving EUR sentiment may help support the euro’s share in reserves going forward.

• Canada hit with 35% tariff, others face blanket 15% to 20%

• Canadian dollar slides, euro under pressure

• Sterling at two-week low after UK economy shrinks in May

• Bitcoin at record high on renewed regulatory optimism

(Updates to U.S. morning)

By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

NEW YORK, July 11 (Reuters) - The dollar edged up across the board on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump's ramped-up tariffs on Canada and other trading partners sparked a flight to safety.

Trump issued a letter late on Thursday that said a 35% tariff rate on

all imports from Canada

would apply from August 1. The European Union was set to receive a letter by Friday.

The U.S. president, whose global wave of tariffs has upended businesses and policymaking, floated a blanket 15% or 20% tariff rate on other countries, a step up from the current 10% baseline rate.

This week he

surprised Brazil

, which has a trade surplus with the United States, with duties of 50%, and hit copper, pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips.

"There do appear to be some tariff jitters creeping in once again after Trump floating the blanket tariffs yesterday," Michael Brown, market analyst at online broker Pepperstone in London, said.

"Overall the moves that we have seen in the FX space are relatively contained, and recent ranges seem to still be respected for the time being," he added.

The euro was 0.1% lower at $1.1689, after Trump said the European Union could receive a letter on tariff rates by Friday, throwing into question the progress of Brussels' trade talks with Washington. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.6% to 147.05 yen.

The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart and was down 0.2% at C$1.3687, following a knee-jerk fall of more than 0.5% after Trump unveiled the tariff rate. The Brazilian real was 0.7% lower against the dollar.

The market reaction to the slew of new tariffs has been largely muted compared to the manic sell-off that followed April's "Liberation Day" announcement, but investors remain on edge over the future of global trade and whether the August 1 deadline is final.

While the resurgence of tariff worries was helping support the buck, some traders remained sceptical about the medium-term outlook for the U.S. currency which has come under severe selling pressure this year.

"My base case remains for a slow but steady USD depreciation over the medium-term, but we have clearly already fallen a long way, in a short space of time, so there is scope for a bit of a rebound, especially if some of the more recent USD shorts begin to get squeezed," Pepperstone's Brown said.

Also supporting the dollar were data suggesting labour market resilience and minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting that tempered market expectations for imminent interest rate cuts.

The dollar index is down nearly 10% so far this year, on worries that data could soon reflect more widely the damage U.S. policies have had on the world's largest economy.

Elsewhere, sterling was down 0.5% at a two-week low at $1.3513, as data showed Britain's economy contracted unexpectedly for a second month running in May.

Cryptocurrencies saw a boost, driven by institutional investor demand and crypto-friendly U.S. policies. Bitcoin

advanced 3.7% and scaled yet another record high of $118,832, while ethereum jumped 5.9% to $2,987.15

"The ... new record reflects the resilience of global risk appetite even in the face of Trump tariffs, as well as high optimism over U.S. legislative proposals," DBS FX and credit strategist Chang Wei Liang said.

He was referring to measures the U.S. House is set to advance in its upcoming 'Crypto Week'.

G10 currency moves against the US dollar

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Rae Wee and Johann M Cherian; Editing by Christopher Cushing, Clarence Fernandez, Joe Bavier and Andrew Heavens)

((; @SaqibReports; +1 332 219 1971; Reuters Messaging: rm:///))

Synopsis:

Bank of America highlights that tightening election polls in Japan and incoming US tariffs raise fiscal and political risks, making the yen vulnerable. They stay long USD/JPY targeting 152 and prefer EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY as additional ways to position for yen weakness.

Key Points:

• Japanese Election Risk: Early polls suggest the LDP-Komeito coalition may struggle to keep its Upper House majority in the 20 July election, increasing fiscal and political uncertainty.

• US Tariffs on Japan: The US will raise tariffs on Japanese goods to 25% on 1 August, putting pressure on Japan’s economy and fiscal policy while the EU avoids similar tariffs.

• BoJ Policy Bias: Higher tariffs may make the BoJ more tolerant of a weaker yen to offset the economic drag.

• Positioning: Non-commercial traders remain net long yen at CME, leaving the market prone to a squeeze.

• Preferred Trades:

  • Stay long USD/JPY, targeting a move toward 152.

  • Favor EUR/JPY, as the EU is shielded from new tariffs.

  • Bullish on AUD/JPY, supported by China’s growth and no direct tariff threat for Australia after the RBA’s surprise hold.

Conclusion:

BofA sees further yen weakness as election and tariff risks add pressure, keeping the BoJ cautious. They remain positioned long USD/JPY to 152 and favour EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY as top relative trades.

• Cable falls to 1.3523 as unexpectedly negative UK GDP data weighs on GBP

• UK economy shrank by 0.1% in May, when growth of 0.1% was expected

• 1.3523 is lowest level since June 23. 1.3549 was Asia low, pre-GDP data

• August BoE interest rate cut all-but-certain after May GDP miss

• GBP/USD support points include 1.3500 and 1.3483 (55-day moving average)

• UK PM Starmer to visit Trump during his trip to Scotland this month

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of copper miners fall premarket, tracking price of the red metal

• Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) down 0.8% at $9,622 a metric ton, down from the three-month peak of $10,020.50 touched on July 2

• Copper prices fell as investors worried that the 50% tariff on the metal due to be imposed on U.S. imports will erode demand, and as speculators unwound positions

• Global mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP Group

each down marginally

• Copper miners Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoRan down 1.3% and 2.6%, respectively

• Canadian miners Ero Copper falls marginally, Hudbay Minerals and Teck Resources

each fall 1.3%
(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

• Canada hit with 35% tariff, others face blanket 15% to 20%

• Canadian dollar slides, euro under pressure

• Sterling slips after UK economy shrinks in May

• Bitcoin scales fresh record high

(Updates to European morning hours)

By Rae Wee and Johann M Cherian

SINGAPORE, July 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose on Friday, fuelled by upheavals on the global trade landscape, as U.S. President Donald Trump announced more import tariffs, ranging from 35% on neighbouring Canada to plans for blanket levies of 15% or 20% on most trading partners.

Trump's latest trade assault on Canada was a surprise for investors who had been anticipating Ottawa could seal a new economic and security deal with its southern neighbour.

The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart and was down 0.22% at C$1.369, following a knee-jerk fall of more than 0.5% after Trump unveiled the tariff rate, which will be levied from August 1.

The euro also slipped 0.1% to $1.1688, heading for a weekly decline of about 0.9% after Trump said the European Union could receive a letter on tariff rates by Friday, throwing into question the progress of Brussels' trade talks with Washington.

"Officials from various countries that have been negotiating in good faith with the Trump administration may wonder whether President Trump may raise the bar for them - in a similar way to Canada - at this final stretch of trade talks," said Piotr Matys, a senior FX strategist at InTouch Capital Markets.

While the market reaction to the slew of new tariffs has been largely muted compared to April's manic sell-off after "Liberation Day", investors remain on tenterhooks about global trade and whether the August 1 deadline is final.

That, in turn, has supported the dollar , which was up 0.2% against a basket of currencies at 97.79 and set to end the week with a gain of 0.8% - its biggest weekly rise since February.

Also supporting the dollar were data suggesting labour market resilience and minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting that tempered market expectations for imminent interest rate cuts.

"Such a move higher (in the dollar) is likely to be seen by a majority of investors as a short-term corrective rebound rather than sustainable reversal. After all, President Trump's policies undermined the dollar's status as the ultimate global reserve currency," Matys said.

The dollar index is down about 9% so far this year, on worries that data could soon reflect more widely the damage U.S. policies have had on the world's largest economy.

The yen slid 0.41% to 146.91 a dollar and was heading for a weekly decline of roughly 1.5%, after Trump slapped tariffs of 25% on Tokyo this week.

Brazil was also among those countries unexpectedly in Trump's tariff crosshairs, and the real , last at 5.532, was set to lose 2% on the week for its steepest decline in nearly five months.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said he was seeking a diplomatic solution to Trump's threat of 50% tariffs on Brazil's exports, but vowed to reciprocate like-for-like if they take effect on August 1.

Elsewhere, sterling was down 0.31% at $1.3538, close to a two-week low as data showed Britain's economy contracted unexpectedly for a second month running in May.

Meanwhile, riskier cryptocurrencies saw a boost, driven by institutional investor demand and crypto-friendly U.S. policies.

Bitcoin advanced 3.7% and scaled yet another record high of $118,407.96, while ethereum jumped 5.7% to $2,980.15

"The ... new record reflects the resilience of global risk appetite even in the face of Trump tariffs, as well as high optimism over U.S. legislative proposals," said DBS FX and credit strategist Chang Wei Liang.

He was referring to measures the U.S. House is set to advance in its upcoming 'Crypto Week'.

G10 currency moves against the US dollar

(Reporting by Rae Wee and Johann M Cherian; Editing by Christopher Cushing, Clarence Fernandez and Joe Bavier)

• Offers ahead of 0.6600 are keeping a lid on AUD/USD gains

• 0.6595 was eight-month peak in Asia, before USD lift on Trump tariff news

• Trump-spurred fall based at 0.6557; subsequent high water-mark is 0.6594

• 0.6557 approximates to July 8 high (after AUD jumped on RBA rate hold shock)

• Option expiries for the 10am ET NY cut include a 0.6600 strike

• JPM CEO Dimon says markets under-pricing risk of higher U.S. interest rates

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Tweaked headline)

• USD/JPY, on Friday, has risen to its highest point this week. 147.19 reached

• Yen hurt this week as Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Tokyo

• Beware the cloud will be less supportive in coming sessions

• EBS flow data: sustained buying between Monday and Thursday, selling since

• It suggests FX traders could be taking profits on this week's USD/JPY rise

• That could well put a lid on USD/JPY until next week

• 30, 60-day log correlations between USD/JPY, EUR/JPY remains high

EBS Flow Data Chart:


Correlation Chart:

• Canada hit with 35% tariff, others face blanket 15% to 20%

• Canadian dollar slides, euro under pressure

• Bitcoin scales fresh record high

(Updates to Asia afternoon)

By Rae Wee

SINGAPORE, July 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose on Friday, fuelled by upheavals in the global trade landscape, as U.S. President Donald Trump announced more import tariffs, ranging from 35% on neighbouring Canada to plans for blanket levies of 15% or 20% on most trade partners.

Most currencies initially held in tight ranges in early Asian trade, though the dollar gained ground later after Trump's latest comments boosted uncertainty over his evolving trade measures.

The Canadian dollar was down 0.27% at C$1.3693, following a knee-jerk fall of more than 0.5% after Trump unveiled a tariff rate of 35% on imports from the neighbour, starting August 1.

"Canada finds itself in the firing line and it's obviously not the end of the week we wanted to see, so you'd expect to see risk assets fall because there is a risk of escalation from several parties," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.

"The tariff headlines so far have been largely ignored, but Canada's... It's something which I don't think the market was braced for."

The European Union could receive a letter on tariff rates by Friday, Trump said the day before, throwing into question the progress of the bloc's trade talks with Washington.

The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1682, heading for a weekly decline of about 0.9%.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar also slipped 0.11% to $0.6581 as the market mood soured.

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said he sought a diplomatic solution to Trump's threat of 50% tariffs on the country, but vowed to reciprocate like-for-like if they take effect on August 1.

The Brazilian real was little changed at 5.5321 per dollar, though set to lose 2% on the week for its steepest such decline in nearly five months.

Elsewhere, sterling was down 0.16% at $1.3558 and was set to lose more than 0.6% on the week.

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.34% to $0.6015 and the yen slid 0.44% to 146.91 a dollar.

The Japanese currency was headed for a weekly decline of roughly 1.6%, after Trump slapped tariffs of 25% on Tokyo this week.

While the market reaction to Trump's slew of new tariffs has been largely muted compared to April's manic sell-off after "Liberation Day", investors remain on tenterhooks about global trade and whether the August 1 deadline is final.

That in turn has supported the dollar , which was up 0.2% against a basket of currencies at 97.79, and set to end the week with a gain of 0.8%.

"For the moment, I think the uncertainty is just playing to a little bit of U.S. dollar stability, and I wouldn't be too surprised if that holds for another couple of weeks," said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin scaled yet another record high of $117,685.96, driven partly by demand from institutional investors.

"The ... new record reflects the resilience of global risk appetite even in the face of Trump tariffs, as well as high optimism over U.S. legislative proposals," said DBS FX and credit strategist Chang Wei Liang.

He was referring to measures the U.S. House is set to advance in its upcoming 'Crypto Week'.

Ether similarly jumped more than 6% to a five-month high of $3,017.81.

(Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Clarence Fernandez)

• Shares of Golden Horse Minerals Ltd rise 2.6% to A$0.395

• Gold explorer rose as much as 11.7% earlier to A$0.43, marking its biggest intraday pct. gain since June 26

• Co. finds high-grade gold mineralization in areas it previously reported as low-grade at its Hopes Hill project in Western Australia

• Co says discovery may lead to site expansion

• YTD, stock up ~64%, including the session's gains
(Reporting by Shruti Agarwal in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY and JPY crosses better bid in Asia, pre-weekend Tokyo fix demand

• USD/JPY soft early but up from 146.15 to 147.03 EBS

• Tracking away from 145.83 descending 100-DMA, 144.79-145.55 daily Ichi cloud

• Also away from 146.21 100-HMA, good support for now, break below bearish

• Decisive break below 100-HMA projects test towards 145.10 200-HMA

• Large option expiries today taken in stride, large 146.00-30, 146.75-147.00

• Some expiries on 147 too but not as large, 146 expiries supportive now?

• Some narrowing in JGB-US Tsy rate differentials to help cap USD/JPY upside

• EUR/JPY up from 170.89 early to 171.62 EBS, recent high Wednesday 172.25

• CHF/JPY 183.30 early to 184.29, multi-decade high Wednesday 184.56

• GBP/JPY 198.18 to 199.33, recent multi-month peak 199.82 Wednesday

• 199.82 double top alongside 199.81 on October 30, 2024

• AUD/JPY shines among JPY crosses, 95.94 to 96.80, away from 95.80 200-DMA

• Best since February 97.27/32 double top on 13th/12th

• Related comments , , , also
USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

Morgan Stanley analyzed how G10 currencies respond to changes in terms-of-trade (ToT) and ranked them by the strength, slope, and stability of these relationships. The results help frame which currencies are more exposed to swings in trade dynamics — a key factor in today’s geopolitically-driven market.

Key Points:

Three Ranking Metrics:

1. Strength: How tight is the correlation between FX and ToT shifts?

2. Slope: How responsive is the currency per unit change in ToT?

3. Structural Stability: Using Bai-Perron tests to detect regime shifts — are the relationships consistent over time?

Findings:

• EUR is the least sensitive G10 currency to ToT changes.

• NOK ranks as the most sensitive, reflecting Norway’s heavy reliance on oil exports and commodity cycles.

• CAD also screens as relatively high-beta to ToT shifts.

• Other resource-linked FX (AUD, NZD) sit in the mid-range.

Implication for Strategy:

• EUR/USD: Expected to continue strengthening, driven by yield differentials, not ToT.

• NOK & CAD: Likely to underperform within G10 due to an unfavorable ToT outlook, as global commodity demand softens and energy markets stabilize.

Conclusion:

EUR/USD: Flows and rate differentials matter more than trade swings — remain constructive.

NOK, CAD: High ToT sensitivity exposes them to further underperformance if global growth risks linger or commodity prices soften

July 11 (Reuters) - USD/JPY is currently range-bound with moves contingent on Japanese government bond-U.S. Treasury interest rate differentials and news on U.S. tariffs. The pair has traded between 142.11-148.65 since May 12, and this range is likely to hold with the 146-handle a pivot at present. The market is observing a possible dovish shift in the U.S. Federal Reserve. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, a centrist, suggested two rate cuts are on the table this year amid relief U.S. tariffs are not as high as first expected (less inflationary?) , , .

Also on Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his desire for a July cut , . Governor Michelle Bowman, previously a hawk, recently switched tone, calling for a July rate cut . Related .

While the majority of the Federal Open Market Committee will likely vote for a continued pause on July 30, a September cut remains open , and, depending on future data, there could be another cut this year. JGB-Treasury rate differentials may therefore be near a peak after some recent widening. The 10-year spread might be capped around 292 basis points, where the descending 100-day moving average comes in Friday.

Hence, USD/JPY upside appears limited for now. Japanese exporters and other players have also been good sellers on upticks, especially above 147.00. Along with large July option expiries at the 147.00 strike, this would cap the upside.

As for U.S. tariffs on Japan, most see no major developments until after Japan's July 20 Upper House elections. Much will depend on whether the ruling Liberal Democrat-led coalition can maintain its majority.

Previous comment .
USD/JPY:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries into month-end:


JGB-US Treasury 10-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai)

• AUD/USD slides 0.5% after Trump says confirmation of tariff levels imminent

• Announces 35% tariff on Canada starting Aug 1, letters coming for others

• Trump also flags incoming 'major statement' on Russia Mon

• Uncertainty fuelling broad risk-off sentiment, DXY firms 0.2%

• AUD recoils from hourly upper Bollinger band, short-term support 0.6542

• AU employment data due late next week will an important gauge for RBA

• Range early Asia 0.6559-95, support 0.6542 0.6485 0.6440, resistance 0.66875
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Steady after closing off 0.05% with the U.S. dollar up just 0.1%

• UK and France agreed to end the undocumented people arriving in small boats

• Deal will be popular with right-wing voters in the fight against UK Reform

• Charts - 5, 10, & 21-day moving averages crest, momentum studies fall

• 21-day Bollinger bands ease - daily chart shows a modest negative bias

• Key supports: This week's 1.3528 low, then 1.3408 lower 21-day Bolli band

• Resistance levels: 1.3681 July 4th top, then 1.3787 2025 high on Tuesday

• Close below this week's 1.3528 low would target the 1.3370 June base
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• +0.05% early after closing down 0.2% with the U.S. dollar up 0.2%

• Russia bombarded Kyiv before 'frank' talks with the US and aid pledges

• The conflict in Ukraine shows few signs of any real compromise or endgame

• There is no significant EU or US data today, so headlines will lead EUR/USD

• Charts - daily momentum studies ease, neutral 21-day Bollinger bands

• 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages conflict - daily charts remain net positive

• The first significant resistance is last week's 1.1830 2025 high

• Yesterday's 1.1662 low and the 1.1660 21-DMA are pivotal supports

• Close below 1.1660 21-DMA would target 1.1537, 0.382% of the May/July rise

• 1.1665 930mln, 1.1700 2.602BLN and 1.1770 2.844BLN close July 11th strikes
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD hits fresh 2025 high at 0.6593 early Asia, currently +6.6% ytd

• Dovish tone of Fed minutes likely to underwrite next leg of rally

• Pair pushing the hourly upper Bollinger band, widening gap above 200-DMA

• Re-calibration of AU OCR expectations post RBA decision continues to support

• AU employment data due late next week will an important gauge for RBA

• Overnight range 0.6542-93, support 0.6440 0.6485, resistance 0.66875
AUD Daily 200-DMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

HSBC argues that EUR/USD, having surged sharply in late June, is now likely to pause or consolidate because the euro lacks the domestic fundamentals needed to extend gains beyond the 1.20 area for now.

Key Points:

Four Missing EUR-Centric Drivers:
In “EUR: Ingredients for 1.30 and What’s Missing” (9 July 2025), HSBC outlines four factors the Eurozone would need to sustain a push above 1.20 and towards 1.30:

1. Faster private sector credit growth — more robust lending and investment.

2. Positive, rising real wage growth — household income and spending support.

3. Inventory cycle recovery — signalling stronger demand and industrial activity.

4. More proactive ECB/EU policy intervention — fiscal or monetary support.

Lofty Levels Could Weigh:
EUR/USD is near the top of recent ranges, and while the euro’s strength could push inflation lower, HSBC’s economists (“FX Effects and the ECB,” 10 July 2025) see the ECB in no hurry to offset this via new rate cuts. They note that the pass-through to core inflation may be more muted than spot FX moves imply.

Inflation Risks Balanced:
Although a stronger euro raises the risk of sub-2% inflation, policymakers appear comfortable staying on hold for now. The ECB’s cautious stance implies that without a fresh domestic growth or credit impulse, further EUR upside is limited.

Conclusion:

Tactically: The recent EUR/USD rally may be due for consolidation, with 1.20 likely to act as a near-term ceiling until more EUR-centric growth drivers materialize.
Strategically: HSBC’s view remains that the euro can benefit in H2 from broader USD weakness — but further gains above 1.20 would require stronger Eurozone fundamentals, which are not yet in place.

(Updates prices and headline, adds fresh analyst comment)

• Dollar pinned by drop in Treasury yields, dovish Fed

• Brazil's real hits 1-month low as Trump criticizes Bolsonaro trial

• Bitcoin hits fresh record high, rising above $113,000

By Hannah Lang, Chibuike Oguh

NEW YORK, July 10 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose against major currencies including the euro and the Swiss franc on Thursday as currency markets largely shrugged off President Donald Trump's latest tariff missives, except in Brazil where a threatened 50% levy sent the real sliding. Investors were hungry for riskier assets, with the most damaging tariff scenarios looking increasingly unlikely. That has helped Nvidia to become the first stock ever with a $4 trillion valuation, and lifted cryptocurrency bitcoin to an all-time peak above $113,000. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields edged higher after data showed that jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 1 basis points to 4.352%. Optimism was also buoyed by minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting, with most policymakers of the opinion that interest rate cuts would be appropriate later this year.

Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington, said the U.S. dollar is partly benefitting from realization that notwithstanding the volatility from tariffs, the U.S. economy is still a linchpin in the global trading system.

" What should you do when the U.S. is acting up? Well, it is still to hold on to the U.S. dollar. In a weird way this whole tariff talk and the suddenness of it, it just demonstrates the powerful idea of leverage," Perez said.

The dollar strengthened 0.37% to 0.797 against the Swiss franc , on track for gains after two consecutive sessions of losses. It was flat at 146.235 against the Japanese yen .

The euro down 0.23% at $1.1692 and was set for two straight sessions of losses against the greenback.

The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, was up 0.27% at 97.638, poised for gains after losing ground in the previous session. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said he wanted to find a diplomatic solution to Trump’s threat of 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports, but vowed to reciprocate like-for-like if they take effect on August 1.

Brazil had originally been slated for just the baseline 10% levy, but Trump cited not just trade practices but the treatment of its former president, Jair Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro, who was friendly with Trump when they were both in office, is on trial on charges of plotting a coup to stop current President Lula da Silva from taking office in January 2023.

The real dropped as much as 2.8% for the first time since June 6. It was last down 0.56% to 5.5433 per dollar.

With the exception of Brazil, Trump's latest batch of letters to trade partners contained tariff rates close to those already proposed in his original "Liberation Day" announcement on April 2, as was the case with other letters this week.

Bitcoin rallied to another all-time high helped by rising demand from institutional investors as well as Trump's crypto-friendly policies.

The world's largest cryptocurrency BTC= rose to a fresh record high of $113,820.49 on the session. It is now up about 21% this year.

(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York; Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo. Editing by Jamie Freed, Mark Potter, Andrew Heavens and Chizu Nomiyama )