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May 09 - 04:55 PM

USD/JPY - Flirting With First Sell Signal Since March, CPI Looks Key

By Randolph Donney  —  May 09 - 02:35 PM

  • USD/JPY eked out a minor new 20-year high before a drop toward Fri's lows

  • Drop in short-term Treasury yields and haven yen bid on crosses weighed

  • Fed's Bostic eyes 2-3 50bp rate hike view, supply chain hope nS0N2UR06Y

  • USD/JPY's daily on-close pivot pt is Fri's 130.10 low on EBS nL2N2X11ID

  • And weekly Bollis bearishly contract for 1st time since start of March

  • Early in the week, though, with focus on Fed path post-CPI on Wednesday

  • The 2- and 10-yr Tsy yields now near 2018's prior Fed hike cycle highs

  • Fed funds peaked in 2018-19 at 2.5% & are priced to peak in 2023 above 3%

  • Overbought USD/JPY uptrend's weekly on-close pivot pt is at 128.62

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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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