Morgan Stanley Research previews today's FOMC minutes from the April 29 meeting.

"We think it is likely to see a shift toward a more neutral stance next meeting, with increasingly symmetrical guidance. The three dissents opposing the easing bias language in the statement likely understate the broader discomfort within the Committee. The minutes should provide additional color on this issue, particularly on how widespread the preference for neutral guidance is across both voters and non-voters. More clarity on the Fed's reaction function will also be a key focus. Powell suggested that further cuts require more convincing evidence from realized data, not just forecasts," MS notes.

"In light of repeated supply shocks and several years of above-target inflation, the Committee appears increasingly reluctant to rely on model-based arguments about "looking through" shocks, instead requiring clearer confirmation in the data. We interpreted these remarks as pointing toward a greater emphasis on year-on-year inflation measures, rather than extrapolations from shorter-term (e.g., three-month annualized) trends. We will look for discussion along these lines in the minutes," MS adds.