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ANZ Research discusses USD/JPY outlook for the coming week.
"The focus next week is September’s national CPI. August core CPI eased to 1.7% y/y, below the 1.8% forecast and the eighth month below the BoJ's 2% target, with fuel subsidies offsetting higher oil costs. The recent Tokyo print points to upside risk. Tokyo core CPI jumped to 2.7% in September, and core-core rose to 3.0%. However, much of the jump reflected the end Tokyo’s water and childcare subsidies, which will not carry over to the national figure. Firm core-core and services prints would support our view of a December hike," ANZ notes.
"We remain "sell on rallies", with the 157.9 resistance now being tested and profit-taking likely around 153. Official resolve should cap upside. A move above 160 would likely prompt stronger warnings from Tokyo and Washington and raise the prospect of coordinated intervention. The FOMC on 27–28 October and the BoJ decision on 30 October are the next catalysts," ANZ adds.