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Feb 05 - 08:55 AM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-UK's Vaccine Roadmap Plots Sterling's Path

By Peter Stoneham  —  Feb 05 - 07:18 AM

Cutting through the shorter-term market and headline noise, the UK roadmap out of a pandemic-strangled economy could hold the key to sterling's outlook.

The UK has stolen a march over its European counterparts as its vaccine rollout tops over 10 million recipients and pushes the country closer to relaxing current COVID restrictions.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will deliver a roadmap speech on Feb.
22, and there is speculation that some lockdown restrictions could be lifted.

Although on a clear upward swing, GBP/USD has a resurgent dollar to contend with, which makes EUR/GBP a better call for sterling bulls.
The cross has been on a bearish trajectory since mid-December, but its latest slide below major technical support has pushed the envelope.
However, the trend is holding and adjustments are likely to be modest while the euro zone's recovery is questioned.

A close on the week below converged 100- and 200-week moving averages, 0.8837-40, would strengthen sterling's hold on the trend.
Bear targets include 0.8671 May 2020 low.
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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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