• EUR/USD has been stuck in a meagre range around the low 1.16's for over 2-weeks and 1.1850-1.1400 since the Iran conflict

• EUR=EBS range so far Tuesday 1.1652-29, well inside Monday's 1.1665-06 range

• The 200-dma at 1.1682 remains a key impediment , breached for 1.1686 highs on Friday, but bulls need a close above

• The 1.1633-1.1700 daily cloud is adding to current resistance and doesn't thin until early July

• The lack of volatility and range break-out risk is reflected in FX option pricing - lowest volatility premiums in 2026

• FX hedging of huge and pre expiry FX option positions is adding to EUR/USD shackles of late - more strikes expire today
EUR=EBS


EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)