Goldman Sachs Research changes its RBA rates forecast.

"We view April's larger-than-expected rise in the unemployment rate as partly just the usual volatility in these data. Even so, the rise to 4.5% is likely sufficiently large to keep the RBA on hold at its next meeting in June, given the unemployment rate will now likely overshoot the RBA's 4.2% average forecast for 2Q2026. We now expect a final 25bp RBA rate hike to 4.60% will be delivered in August (prior: June)," GS notes.

"The RBA views current financial conditions as only 'probably somewhat restrictive'. We expect this will be hard to justify in August following a likely very strong 2Q2026 CPI report and view a further 25bp hike to definitively restrictive financial conditions as more consistent with the RBA's characterisation of risks to the macro outlook," GS adds.