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Feb 20 - 06:12 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Will Keep Falling Until A Large Short Is Evident

By Jeremy Boulton  —  Feb 20 - 04:25 AM

EUR/USD will probably keep falling until speculators build a large bet on its decline.
At the moment, speculators are short and they have undoubtedly sold more euros since CFTC data was last compiled on Feb.
EUR/USD has since dropped more than 1%.
But it's unlikely traders have built a market-stopping bet since then or that they will do so for some time.
The record EUR/USD short held when EUR/USD broke down to current levels in 2015 was roughly three times greater than that held on Feb.
Volatility today is much lower than it was when that record short was established.
Low vols should encourage risk taking.
Current conditions may lead to the establishment of another record short, but to get there the amount of fresh selling will weigh on EUR/USD.
Low vols also mean interest rates matter more, and the rate gap weighing on EUR/USD is much bigger than it was in 2015.
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EUR shorts.
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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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