Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses EUR/USD outlook into this week's July FOMC meeting.

"The apparent resilience of EUR/USD is partly due to the 2Y EUR-USD rate spread – our preferred measure of the relative central bank outlook – that has been widening in recent weeks. In turn, this reflected the latest repricing of ECB rate hikes that has coincided with relatively stable Fed rate expectations," CACIB notes.

"This week’s Fed policy meeting could be an important FX driver through its impact on US rates and thus the EUR-USD rate spread. That said, we think that the bar for a hawkish FOMC surprise on Wednesday is relatively high so that relative central bank outlook could continue to mute any EUR/USD losses from here," CACIB adds/3