Overview: GS says AUD/NZD’s sharp rise is justified by fundamentals and can extend as policy divergence deepens.

Goldman Sachs notes that AUD/NZD “looks stretched, but we think they are justified by the latest macro data,” pointing to a 40bp repricing higher in RBA terminal rates vs. a 60bp move lower for the RBNZ since late July.

They add that reversing this move would require “a material shift in the data backdrop or either bank’s reaction function,” with the RBA sounding hawkish and the RBNZ expected to cut 25bp in November and February — and not ruling out a 50bp cut this month.

• EUR/USD -0.5% Wed as DXY rallies after release of Oct Fed meeting minutes

• Despite cutting 25 bps, a number of policymakers were anxious on inflation

• DXY currently sitting just below critical 100.25-35 resistance zone

• Sep NFP due Thur will begin to provide clarity on chances of Dec Fed cut

• EUR trading near lower hourly Bollinger band, slide starting slow short term

• EU Nov consumer confidence (poll -14.0) and Nov PMI data due Thur

• Range early Asia 1.15205-28, support 1.1470 1.1392, resistance 1.1670 1.1919
EUR Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA


EUR Daily 21-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.6% Wed after first dip below 200-DMA (0.64595) since Jun 23

• 0.6440 should provide solid base, but a close below 200-DMA would be bearish

• Nvidia results late Wed will impact sentiment amid equity valuation concerns

• USD firms post-release of Oct Fed meeting minutes reveals inflation anxiety

• Sep NFP due Thur will begin to provide clarity on chances of Dec Fed cut

• RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaking in Sydney 0200 GMT Thur

• Overnight range 0.6451-97, support 0.6440 0.6415, resistance 0.6580 0.6630
AUD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ dips to 2-wk low in NY afternoon, -0.65% at 1.3058; Wed range 1.3155-1.3056

• Below forecast CPI data hints at lower BoE policy path, Fed path seen less-dovish

• Fed path in flux as vocal hawks promote cautious tack amid shutdown data dearth

• Fed Dec cut odds dip to 27% after minutes, was 42% earlier in Wed session

• Most Fed members judged further reduction appropriate, not necessarily in Dec

• Beyond Fed, BoE policy sterling under pressure ahead of Nov 26 UK autumn budget

• FinMin Reeves has no good options; UK 10/30-yr gilt rise hints at growing angst

• GBP$ supt 1.3057 Wed low, 1.3011 daily low Nov 5, 1.3004 lwr 30-d Bolli

• Res 1.3099 falling 10-HMA, 1.3155 Wed high, 1.3182 falling 21-DMA

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Overview: JPM prefers to stay flat in EUR/USD into the delayed September jobs report, expecting limited relevance and muted reaction.

JP Morgan says the “payrolls trade is easier,” noting that a weak September print would simply reflect shutdown-related softness, while an inline or stronger number will likely be viewed as “stale and less reaction.”

With European PMIs expected to “at least consolidate recent upward momentum,” JPM opts to remain sidelined in EUR/USD, adding that the bigger-picture outlook “requires some more pause for thought here.”

• Crypto-linked U.S. stocks weaken as bitcoin’s extended sell-off drags sector lower

• Bitcoin , the world's largest cryptocurrency, last down 3.17% at $89,530.85

• Shares of crypto exchange Coinbase Global off 3.3%

• BTC stockpiler Strategy , formerly known as MicroStrategy, down 8.6%

• Crypto miners Riot Platforms down 4.3%, MARA Holdings falls 6.2%, CleanSpark slips 3.7%, Hut 8 down 3.9%

• ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF both down around 3%
(Reporting by Tharuniyaa Lakshmi in Bengaluru)

Overview: Both banks expect a soft but positive September payrolls report, with job growth hovering near breakeven and the unemployment rate unchanged.

Morgan Stanley looks for a 50k increase in headline and private payrolls, with the jobless rate holding at 4.3%.

Bank of America is slightly more optimistic, forecasting 65k NFP (70k private) and noting that “robust air travel & consumption should bode well for leisure & hospitality jobs.” They also expect upward revisions to August given low response rates and seasonal factors, while flagging headwinds from layoffs in professional & business services, goods-producing sectors, and parts of government.

Both agree that job creation remains close to breakeven—meaning the unemployment rate should stay at 4.3%.

(Updates)

• Shares of gold miners rise, tracking a gain in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold rose 1.4% to $4,126.00 per ounce

• Gold prices rise as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes later in the day and delayed U.S. employment data

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining rise 3% and 2% respectively

• U.S.-listed shares of South African miners Gold Fields

up 5%, Harmony Gold up 2.5%, AngloGold Ashanti up 4.2% and Sibanye Stillwater rises 8.5%

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines gain 2.4% and Kinross Gold up 3%

(Reporting by Sumit Saha and Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Overview: GS expects further Dollar depreciation next year, but in a shallower, more broad-based fashion, with EUR/USD edging toward fair value and pro-cyclical FX outperforming.

Goldman Sachs argues that a “less-exceptional” US macro backdrop should gradually erode the Dollar’s still-rich valuation, with EUR/USD drifting toward a 1.20–1.25 fair-value range rather than delivering another explosive Euro-centric move.

They add that USD depreciation in 2026 is likely to be expressed more in pro-cyclical G10 and EM FX such as AUD, BRL and ZAR, alongside steady CNY strength, noting that this will result in “a shallower overall move compared to this year.”

Overview: BofA says bearish GBP momentum remains intact, though a relief bounce after Budget Day is plausible.

Bank of America notes their quant indicators show the market “remains bearish on GBP,” highlighting nearly 2-z score demand for GBP/USD puts and a bullish EUR/GBP trend in their models.

Their CARS framework also turns GBP-bearish this week due to UK equity weakness, and they caution that “current bearish momentum has not started to fade yet.”

However, BofA adds that GBP could still see a relief rally after the UK Budget, with the main risk to bearish positions being a sudden sentiment reversal and short-unwinds.

• Cable falls to 1.3093 as pound weakens on dovish shift in BoE expectations

• Dovish shift spurred by lower UK inflation: CPI eases to 3.6% YY in October

• 1.3093 is lowest level since November 12 (1.3085 was low that day)

• Asian session range was 1.3130-1.3155 (before UK inflation data)

• UK PMQs 1200-1230 GMT (first PMQs since news no income tax hike in budget)

• Brightmine says UK pay settlements rise. Fed minutes due at 1900 GMT

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has held sub-0.65 since the European open, and tested 0.6477

• 0.6477 was Asian session low (0.6466 was Tuesday base, low since Nov 6)

• Risk-sensitive AUD negatively impacted by stocks falling for fifth day

• Huge 0.6475-85 and 0.6500-05 option expiries for the 10am ET NY cut

• Australian wage growth steady in Q3, supports RBA rate pause view

• Trump could announce next Fed chair before Christmas, Bessent tells Fox News

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable falls to 1.3118 as UK CPI data spurs dovish shift in BoE expectations

• 1.3118 is lowest level since Friday (1.3109 was low that day)

• UK CPI eases to 3.6% YY in October, from 3.8% in September, August and July

• Markets now see 88% chance of BoE December rate cut, vs 80% chance Tuesday

• 1.3155 was GBP/USD high in Asia (shortly before the UK inflation data)

• UK's Reeves says leaks about the upcoming budget "not acceptable"

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options are forward looking and thrive on volatility/directional moves

• Demand and a raised premium for GBP put options therefore ominous for GBP

• GBP put options give holders the right to sell GBP on a future date

• Plenty of strikes in a 1.2800-1.3000 zone trading with Dec-Feb expiries

• 1-week GBP expiry date now gets key UK budget - risk premiums jump

• 1-week expiry implied volatility to new highs since July at 9.0

• US jobs data looms large in FX options pricing

• FX options wrap - Pricing reflects increasing FX risks
GBP/USD FXO risk reversals


GBP/USD 1-week expiry implied volatility

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Nov 19 (Reuters) -

• EUR/USD struggling to hold above 1.1600 of late but losses below are limited

• More big option strike expiries and related hedging flows help contain

• Limited 1.1573-97 range Wed, many daily lows before 5 Nov 1.1469 low/support

• FX options demand high volatility risk premium, despite low realised vol

• Reflects broader FX nerves amid risk aversion as US data risks return

• However, risk reversal options retain a small premium for upside strikes

• Trade flow shows topside strike demand still outweighs that for downside

• Buyers of 1-2-week expiry strikes at 1.1700-25 noted early Wednesday

• Related - US jobs data looms large in FX options pricing
EUR/USD risk reversals


1-month expiry FXO implied volatility


EUR=EBS

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY implied volatility is high, despite muted realised volatility

• Historic realised volatility highlights this - well below current implieds

• Buyers of both JPY calls and puts reflect the lack of directional clarity

• Calls offer the right to buy JPY and puts to sell - hedging both sides

• Calls sought for intervention protection and puts for upside in USD/JPY

• JPY calls hold a strong premium to puts despite JPY falling to low since Feb

• That's unusual and underscores uncertainty around the USD/JPY outlook

• FX options wrap - Pricing reflects increasing FX risks
USD/JPY FXO risk reversals


USD/JPY FXO implied volatility

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable respects 1.3130-1.3155 Asia range after UK CPI data matches forecast

• Up 3.6% YY in October. 1.3130 is low since Friday (1.3109 was low that day)

• Tuesday range was 1.3135-1.3175 (last week's range was 1.3085-1.3215)

• Reuters poll: 48 of 61 economists expect BoE rate cut to 3.75% in December

• Around 54% expect follow-up cut to 3.5% in Q1. UK budget next week (Nov 26)

• Trump could announce next Fed chair before Christmas, Bessent tells Fox News

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.3% Wed, markets remain edgy about global Equity valuations

• Nvidia results due Wed will have outsized impact on broad risk sentiment

• Sep NFP due Thur as flow of delayed U.S. data starts to accelerate

• AU Q3 wage price index +0.8% q/q, state government pay rises the main driver

• AUD consolidating bounce from near 0.6460 200-DMA, new impetus needed

• Range Asia 0.6488-0.6511, support 0.6440 0.6415, resistance 0.6580 0.6630
AUD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY on hold below 155.73 EBS high yesterday, best since 155.90 Feb 3

• Asia 155.34-60, off from high but downside limited

• Market now thinking maybe no MOF-ordered FX intervention till 160

• Japanese importer, spec bids on dips, latter to continue to test MOF resolve

• Some nearby option expiries today in 155.50-60 window

• Lack of fresh jaw-boning from MOF officials today

• Focus on BOJ-FinMin/EconMin meetings today, afternoon presser

• FX intervention to be discussed? Almost given BOJ to hold on policy in Dec

• EUR/JPY also bid and holding below 180.29 record high yesterday

• Asia range 179.92-180.14 EBS, plenty tech supports below like USD/JPY

• CHF/JPY 193.98-194.59, GBP/JPY 203.97-204.59 and AUD/JPY 100.77-101.27

• Related comments , , also ,

• On Japan data , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD doing little in Asia again today, 1.1580-84 EBS, very quiet

• Follows an uneventful overnight session, range yesterday 1.1572-1.1607

• Little in way of market-moving news out of Europe so far this week

• Flows also receding with FX market focus elsewhere

• Market in wider range defined by 100-DMA at 1.1656, 1.1395 200-DMA?

• Heavy above 1.1584 200-HMA, hourly Ichimoku kijun 1.1589 above

• Hourly Ichimoku cloud 1.1596-1.1618 and 100-HMA in cloud at 1.1605

• Massive option expiries eyed today around 1.15, 1.16, 1.17 big figures

• Large expiries also eyed at strikes in between, to help contain spot

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD daily:


EUR/USD hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Wed, AU wage inflation data as expected but remains elevated

• AU Q3 wage price index +0.8% q/q, +3.4% y/y (poll +0.8%, +3.4% respectively)

• Equity valuation concerns a focal point ahead Wed's pivotal Nvidia results

• Markets nervous as delayed U.S. data starts to drop, Sep NFP due Thur

• Weaker U.S. job market indicators boost Dec FFR cut hopes, UST yields lower

• AUD consolidating bounce from near 0.6460 200-DMA, needs fresh stimulant

• Range Asia 0.6501-11, support 0.6440 0.6415, resistance 0.6580 0.6630 0.6707
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY bid yesterday despite even more Japan MOF warnings on weak yen

• MOF tone more urgent but beginning to fall on deaf ears

• Markets looks to continue to test MOF's resolve, no intervention till 160?

• USD/JPY high yesterday 155.73 EBS, best since 155.90 on February 3

• Asia so far 155.40-60, optionality eyed at 156.00, stops 155.90-156.00+

• Some expiries in area today too at 156.00, 156.50, 155.50-60 large

• Hourly Ichimoku tenkan in area at 155.50, kijun 155.28, cloud 154.46-155.03

• Ascending 100-HMA in cloud at 154.84, 200-HMA below cloud at 154.37

• Little chge in JGB-US Treasury rate differentials, still in narrowing trend

• Continue to look for Japanese importer and spec bids on dips

• BOJ Ueda seen acceding to PM Takaichi wishes to hold policy as is

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also , on Ueda-Takaichi meeting

• US markets , , ,

• On Fed/US data , ,

• On flows , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +0.7% from Tue 0.6466 low despite ongoing equity valuation concerns

• Weaker U.S. job market indicators boost Dec FFR cut hopes, UST yields lower

• AU Q3 wage price index 0030 GMT, Reuters poll consensus +0.8% q/q, +3.4% y/y

• Wed's Nvidia results could be a key driver of broader risk sentiment

• Markets remain wary of U.S. data bottleneck, Sep NFP due Thur pivotal

• AUD near upper hourly Bollinger band, progress higher will slow short term

• Overnight range 0.6475-0.65185, support 0.6440 0.6415, resistance 0.6580
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study


AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1585 after EUR/USD traded 1.1606-1.1580 overnight

• The pair rallied early as US$, US yields traded downward

• USD/CNH's slip from its high, gold & EUR/JPY gains helped buoy EUR/USD

• 1.16075 traded, sellers then emerged as stocks bounced up & US$ rallied

• EUR/USD fell below the 10- & 21-DMAs, hit 1.1572, neared 1.1580 late, was down -0.13%

• Drop below 10- & 21-DMAs, daily inverted hammer, falling daily RSI are bear signals
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)