• AUD/USD +0.75% from Mon 0.66625 low as metals continue to surge

• LME copper +4.2% Mon as Chilean mine strike exacerbates supply concerns

• U.S. Dec manufacturing PMI data miss prompting accelerated FFR cut calls

• AUD needs fresh catalyst to inspire break above 0.6727 2025 high

• AU Nov monthly CPI due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.25% m/m, 3.65% y/y

• Pivotal Dec U.S. non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +60k

• Range Asia 0.67085-16, support 0.6590-95 0.6415, resistance 0.69435
LME Copper Daily 21-DMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/THB opens lower, extended rally in gold prices weighs

• Pair traded 31.275-31.40 range in NY, closed at 31.30

• Supports at 31.20, 31.00; resistance at 31.50, 31.70

• Eyes on BOT amid concerns on THB's strength - impact on exporters and growth

• US Treasury yields drop as traders await key jobs data, 10yr last at 4.17%

• DXY last at 98.42, ranged 98.25-86 overnight

• UST yields retreat ahead of key jobs data, 10yr last at 4.17%

• Stocks, energy shares, oil jump after US strikes Venezuela
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• USD/JPY up 0.2% in Asia after closing 0.25% lower on Monday

• Boosted by resilient risk appetite; Nikkei +1%, Dow surged to a record Mon

• Venezuela events taken in stride, focus shifts to U.S. jobs data Friday

• Fed & BOJ rate expectations, Japan fiscal policy will be key drivers in 2026

• Concerns over Japan's expansive fiscal policy continue to limit JPY upside

• Hawkish BOJ expectations support yen; Ueda vows to keep raising rates

• Resistance 157.25-30, 157.50, support 156.10-20, 155.75-80

• Monday range 156.12-157.295; Asia range 156.30-156.75
Yields set to edge up in the US, euro zone, down in Britain, Japan:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD +0.6% from Mon 1.1659 low after U.S. PMI impacts DXY/UST yields

• U.S. Dec ISM manufacturing PMI 47.9 (poll 48.4), lowest since Oct 2024

• Venezuelan President Maduro pleads not guilty, markets becoming ambivalent

• Broader EUR direction will be dictated by data in coming sessions

• Preliminary Dec EU CPI data (HICP flash) due Wed, U.S. NFP Fri (poll +60k)

• Range Asia 1.1724-28, support 1.1490 1.1470, resistance 1.1820 1.19185
EUR Daily 21-DMA


ISM Manufacturing PMI

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.4% late Mon after worse than anticipated U.S. PMI data

• U.S. Dec ISM manufacturing PMI 47.9 (poll 48.4), lowest since Oct 2024

• UST yields & DXY softer, U.S. NFP (due Fri) will be critical (poll +60k)

• Venezuelan President Maduro pleads not guilty, markets moving on

• AUD targeting break of.6727 2025 high, upswing may accelerate above

• AU Nov monthly CPI due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.25% m/m, 3.65% y/y

• Overnight range 0.66625-0.6719, support 0.6590-95 0.6415, resistance 0.69435
ISM Manufacturing PMI


AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ firm into NorAm close, +0.51% at 1.3530; Monday range 1.3540-1.3415

• Early USD bid evaporates in NorAm trading; haven flows post-Maduro capture unwind

• UST yields move lower saps USD of early strength, risk broadly higher

• Equities, commodities move higher; BTC gains near 3% in NY afternoon trade

• Diverging Fed-BoE rate expectations, see LSEG's IRPR, in 2026 also add to GBP's allure

• GBP$ res 1.3540 Monday high, 1.3559 daily high Sept 19, 1.3599 upper 30-d Bolli

• Supt 1.3428 rising 21-DMA, 1.3402 daily low Dec 31, 1.3336 daily cloud top

GBP$ Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1680 after EUR/USD traded downward overnight, slide extended early

• US$ buying emerged in early NY, EUR/USD fell to a 1-month low of 1.1659

• Buyers emerged as US yields fell further & US$ selling took hold

• Rallies in gold , stocks , copper helped to weighed on the US$

• EUR/USD rallied to 1.1720 in NY's afternoon, sat near 1.1710 late, was down only -0.06%

• A large daily long legged doji candle formed, that may be a concern for EUR/USD shorts
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Updates)

• Shares of gold miners rise, tracking the price of bullion [GOL/]

• Spot gold up 2% at $4,418.7/ounce

• Prices sprint higher edging closer to their record peak as geopolitical turmoil stirred up by the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro sparked a flight to safety

• "Gold is benefiting from the U.S.-Venezuela escalation over the weekend. This has increased demand for the safe-haven precious metal as it adds to uncertainties market participants are already grappling with," says Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA

• Top miner Newmont rises 2% and Barrick Mining

gains 2.5%

• U.S. listed shares of South African miners Gold Fields

climb 2.2%, Harmony Gold up 3% and Sibanye Stillwater advances ~6%

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines up 2.3% and Kinross Gold gains ~2%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD traded 0.6694-0.6665 overnight, NY opened near 0.6685, down -0.10%

• Move lower driven by broad-based US$ buying; USD/CNH rallied 6.9719-6.9828

• AUD/JPY drop towards 104.630 also helped to weigh down AUD/USD

• Gold , copper , equity gains helped AUD/USD bounce off its low

• AUD/USD held below the 10-DMA which could be a concern for bulls

• Long lower wick on today's candle, hold above 21-DMA gives bulls some comfort

• US December ISM manufacturing PMI is a data risk during NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cracks appeared in sterling's five-week bull run for the week-ending January 2

• A soft but tight start Monday as the broader market stalls on geopolitical news

• GBP/USD focus also on UK consumer borrowing data: biggest rise since Nov 2023

• Dollar marginally firmer vs the majors but a cautious market limits activity

• Sterling is vulnerable and GBP/USD eyes a critical support point

• The low from December 31, 1.3402, if breached could open up Fibo levels

• A 38.2% retracement of the 1.3039-1.3533 bull run is at 1.3344 and 50% at 1.3286
GBP/USD Weekly Chart:


GBP/USD daily chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD trades with heavy tone in the wake of U.S. action in Venezuela

• Dips are still relatively shallow at this stage

• Though this would likely change should the U.S. escalate actions further

• AUD continues to draw a degree of support from the persistent bid in AUD/NZD

• Firmer in metals and equities are adding an additional cushion

• Pair lingers around the 200-hour MAs near 0.6680/93

• Near-term support comes in at 0.66. Resistance: 0.6700/27
AUDUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• Shares of cryptocurrency and blockchain-related companies rise as bitcoin , ether prices hit over three-week high

• World's biggest cryptocurrency up 1.4% at $92,530.94, while ether rises 0.6% to $3,162.42

• Crypto exchange Coinbase Global rises 3.9%, while Blockchain farm operator Bitfarms Ltd up 4.2%

• Crypto miners: Riot Platforms Inc , MARA Holdings , Hut 8 and Bit Digital up between 2.5% and 3.3%

• BTC buyer Strategy gain 3.7%

• BTC mining machine maker Canaan Inc up 6.2%

• ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF adds 3.2%

• iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF up 3%

• BTC fell 6.4% in 2025 while ETH fell 11%

(Reporting by Avinash P in Bengaluru)

(Adds COMMENT to header ) The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes may bolster any nearby support and resistance levels, and potentially have a magnetic effect on FX price action towards each day's 10 a.m. New York (15.00 GMT) cut expiry. It is therefore advantageous to know in advance where the larger strikes lie.

Date Strike Notion

al

(euros

)

January 5 1.1600 633

mln

1.1630 780 mln

1.1750 830 mln

1.1800-1.1805 2.5 bln

January 6 1.1640-1.1655 2.1

bln

1.1740-1.1750 1.1 bln

1.1770 1 bln

January 7 1.1625 1.1

bln

1.1725-1.1740 2.1 bln

1.1775 1.5 bln

January 8 1.1650-1.1660 2.3

bln

1.1670-1.1675 1.8 bln

1.1695-1.1700 1.2 bln

1.1800 2.2 bln

January 9 1.1600-1.1610 2 bln

1.1800 2.5 bln

Continued option trading can increase the size of current strikes and add new ones, so be sure to check the daily FX option expiry updates that are posted around 7 a.m. London time on FXBUZ.(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD drops to a new low since 10 Dec at 1.1672 (EBS) on Jan 5

• Firmer USD tone and lower oil prices add weight to EUR/USD

• Key support at 100-dma and daily cloud top 1.1665 and 1.1644

• 10-9-8 Dec daily lows 1.1621-15-16 underpin. 1.1624 daily cloud twist Jan 24 negative sign

• Resistance at 21-dma 1.1734 an multiple daily highs through 24 Dec 3-month peak 1.1808

• Closest FX option strike expiries are at 1.1630 and 1.1750
EUR=EBS


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/THB pressured by gold related selling, despite higher DXY

• Gold rises over 1% on safe-haven demand, spot gold last $4409/oz, +1.81%

• Pair last at 31.36-38, traded amid 31.37-55 range so far

• Nearby support at 31.30, break to see retest at 31.00 handle

• Fresh intervention from the central bank eyed as BOT wants a weaker THB

• Higher oil prices on Venezuela turmoil may add to support near 31.30 too

• Related
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• GBP/USD down 0.2% in Asia as dollar rallies on geopolitical tensions

• Investors face more geopolitical whiplash from Trump's Venezuela gamble

• Firms into data-laden week with U.S. jobs number to shape rate expectations

• Fed's Paulson signals another rate cut could take a while

• Downside limited as BoE wary of more rate cuts as inflation still elevated

• Support 1.3430-40, 1.3400-10, resistance 1.3500-10, 1.3555-60
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.1% in Asia after safe haven buying lifted USD index/gold early

• Pair bouncing from lower hourly Bollinger band, may have based short-term

• Trump telegraphs threats on Greenland, Colombia, Venezuela & Iran

• Venezuela government holds onto control post-President Maduro's arrest

• U.S. Dec ISM manufacturing PMI due Mon, Reuters poll consensus 48.3

• AU Nov monthly CPI due Wed (poll 3.7% y/y), U.S. payrolls Fri (poll +55k)

• Range Asia 0.6675-935, support 0.6590-95 0.6415, resistance 0.69435
Gold Daily 21-DMA


AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD -0.2% Mon as USD index firms & gold +1.5% amid safe haven demand

• Trump threatens further intervention after Venezuela President Maduro arrest

• Fed President Anna Paulson says further FFR cuts could be some way off

• U.S. Dec ISM manufacturing PMI due Mon, Reuters poll consensus 48.3

• Preliminary Dec EU CPI data (HICP flash) due Wed, U.S. NFP Fri (poll +55k)

• Range Asia 1.169425-1.1728, support 1.1490 1.1470, resistance 1.1820 1.19185
Gold Daily 21-DMA


EUR Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD down 0.1% in busy Asian trading after closing 0.1% lower Friday

• Weighed down by higher U.S. yields ahead of week's heavy data schedule

• U.S. jobs data Fri key; Fed's Paulson signals another cut could take awhile

• Venezuela developments watched as safe-haven feature supports USD

• Downside limited as BoE wary of more rate cuts as inflation still elevated

• Support 1.3430-40, 1.3400-10, resistance 1.3500-10, 1.3555-60

• Friday range 1.3435-1.3502, Asia range 1.3437-1.3468
Venezuela's crude oil exports:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Mon as Trump threatens further geopolitical interventions

• Venezuela's government remains incumbent after U.S. arrests President Maduro

• Markets wary potential of 'risk-off' move, gold +1.4% on safe haven buying

• Lack of follow through selling may spur move towards AUD 0.6727 2025 high

• Fed President Anna Paulson indicates further FFR cuts could be some way off

• U.S. Dec ISM manufacturing PMI due Mon, Reuters poll consensus 48.3

• AU Nov monthly CPI due Wed (poll 3.7% y/y), U.S. payrolls Fri (poll +55k)

• Range Asia 0.6677-935, support 0.6590-95 0.6415, resistance 0.69435
Gold Daily 21-DMA


AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY +0.1% in Asia after closing unchanged on Friday

• Higher U.S. yields support as traders brace for week's heavy data schedule

• U.S. jobs data key; Fed's Paulson signals another rate cut could take awhile

• Venezuela developments taken in stride as JPY loses safe-haven features

• BOJ Ueda, finmin Katayama appear in a bunch of lobby group ceremonies Monday

• Resistance 157.10, 157.50, 157.75-80, support 156.50, 156. 30, 155.75-80

• Friday range 156.43-157.00, Asia range 156.70-157.10
U.S. military strikes in Venezuela:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.2% early Mon after U.S. takes Venezuela's Maduro into custody

• Trump threatens further U.S. intervention in Venezuela & other countries

• Traders looking to gold & oil for cues of a broader 'risk-off' move

• AUD market likely to get itself short, subject to squeeze higher later on

• U.S. Dec ISM manufacturing PMI due Mon, Reuters poll consensus 48.3

• AU Nov monthly CPI due Wed (poll 3.7% y/y), U.S. payrolls Fri (poll +55k)

• Range Asia 0.6679-91, support 0.6590-95 0.6415, resistance 0.69435
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

(Corrects typo in line 1 and line 4)

• NY opened near 1.1720 after EUR/USD traded 1.1765-1.1713 in Asia & Europe

• The pair hovered near opening levels as stocks, gold, silver traded higher

• EUR/USD then rallied as US$ selling took hold while stocks, gold, silver moved downward

• 1.1754 traded, US$ then bounced upward, EUR/USD neared 1.1730 late, down only -0.14%

• Falling RSIs, hold below the 10- & 21-DMAs gives technicals a bearish lean
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6690 after AUD/USD traded 0.6707 overnight

• Pair rallied early, 0.6696 traded as commodities, stocks rallied sharply

• Sellers emerged however as the bid for riskier assets faded away

• Stocks turned down & gold, silver, copper gave up some earlier gains

• AUD/USD hit 0.6680, sat near 0.6685 late, traded up only +0.20% in NY's afternoon

• Rising RSIs and AUD/USD's hold above 10- & 21-DMAs gives technicals a bullish lean
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)